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Underwater heat 'inferno' ravages Mediterranean corals

This summer a major marine heatwave hit the western Mediterranean, with water up to five degrees Celsius hotter than normal

In the temperate shallows of the Mediterranean, once-vibrant red and purple coral forests that provide a crucial haven for biodiversity now stand bleached and brittle, transformed into skeletons by record summer temperatures, scientists say.

Holding naked branches of gorgonian coral, Tristan Estaque of marine conservation group Septentrion Environnement is returning despondent from an exploratory dive off the coast of Marseille in southern France.

“It is heartbreaking, the deterioration is so fast,” he tells AFP. 

Dive surveys just two months earlier found an intact landscape, lush with violet-fringed fans of gorgonian coral. 

Now it is a “ghost forest”, says Estaque, with the majestic fans largely bare of living tissue.  

“You have to imagine a tree where there are no more leaves, no more bark.”

– Fragile forests –

Gorgonian corals, which have flexible skeletons encrusted with polyps, are found across the planet. 

Those found in the Mediterranean are said to create “forests”, sheltering a huge array of species.

But they are acutely vulnerable to human activities.  

Fishing nets, anchors and careless divers can rip their delicate structures, while exposure to continuous and intense heat can be lethal. 

Marine heatwaves are becoming more common, according to a report this year by UN climate experts.   

This summer a major marine heatwave hit the western Mediterranean, with water up to five degrees Celsius (41 degrees Fahrenheit) hotter than normal, according to Mercator Ocean International, the organisation that runs the European ocean monitoring service. 

In some places water reached 30C.

Recent Septentrion Environnement surveys have shown that between 70 and 90 percent of the red gorgonian population in the 10 to 20-metre zone off Marseille have since died. 

The effect was like “an underwater inferno”, according to Solene Basthard-Bogain, another of the group’s specialists.

And it is not just near the southern French coast. 

Gorgonian mortality has also been observed on the Spanish coasts and around the Italian island of Sardinia, according to Stephane Sartoretto of the French research agency Ifremer.

The severity of the impact appears to vary depending on the depth of the corals. 

Along the sawtooth coastline of France’s Calanques National Park, notched with craggy coves and shallow habitats where the gorgonians are found in waters of just six metres (20 feet) in places, the die-offs have been particularly intense.

In the Balearic Islands, they live deeper, at 40 metres, and were therefore less impacted, Sartoretto says.

– ‘Forest fire’ –

In addition to the gorgonians, sponges and bivalves have also been affected.

The marine heatwave likewise battered mussel farming, with 150 tonnes of commercial mussels and 1,000 tonnes of young stock — for next year’s crop — lost in Spain over the summer.

A drop in temperatures in the Mediterranean could help to save those corals that were spared in the summer die-off, says Basthard-Bogain, although she worries that any pathogens that may have spread because of the heat would still be present in the waters. 

There are fears, too, that another hot spell cannot be ruled out before the end of the autumn. 

Sartoretto says he worries that repeated periods of heat stress could be devastating for the corals. 

“We can ask ourselves about the possibility of their disappearance,” he says, adding that their reproduction rate is very slow. 

“Like after a forest fire on land,” he says, “they will take decades to regenerate.”

Underwater heat 'inferno' ravages Mediterranean corals

This summer a major marine heatwave hit the western Mediterranean, with water up to five degrees Celsius hotter than normal

In the temperate shallows of the Mediterranean, once-vibrant red and purple coral forests that provide a crucial haven for biodiversity now stand bleached and brittle, transformed into skeletons by record summer temperatures, scientists say.

Holding naked branches of gorgonian coral, Tristan Estaque of marine conservation group Septentrion Environnement is returning despondent from an exploratory dive off the coast of Marseille in southern France.

“It is heartbreaking, the deterioration is so fast,” he tells AFP. 

Dive surveys just two months earlier found an intact landscape, lush with violet-fringed fans of gorgonian coral. 

Now it is a “ghost forest”, says Estaque, with the majestic fans largely bare of living tissue.  

“You have to imagine a tree where there are no more leaves, no more bark.”

– Fragile forests –

Gorgonian corals, which have flexible skeletons encrusted with polyps, are found across the planet. 

Those found in the Mediterranean are said to create “forests”, sheltering a huge array of species.

But they are acutely vulnerable to human activities.  

Fishing nets, anchors and careless divers can rip their delicate structures, while exposure to continuous and intense heat can be lethal. 

Marine heatwaves are becoming more common, according to a report this year by UN climate experts.   

This summer a major marine heatwave hit the western Mediterranean, with water up to five degrees Celsius (41 degrees Fahrenheit) hotter than normal, according to Mercator Ocean International, the organisation that runs the European ocean monitoring service. 

In some places water reached 30C.

Recent Septentrion Environnement surveys have shown that between 70 and 90 percent of the red gorgonian population in the 10 to 20-metre zone off Marseille have since died. 

The effect was like “an underwater inferno”, according to Solene Basthard-Bogain, another of the group’s specialists.

And it is not just near the southern French coast. 

Gorgonian mortality has also been observed on the Spanish coasts and around the Italian island of Sardinia, according to Stephane Sartoretto of the French research agency Ifremer.

The severity of the impact appears to vary depending on the depth of the corals. 

Along the sawtooth coastline of France’s Calanques National Park, notched with craggy coves and shallow habitats where the gorgonians are found in waters of just six metres (20 feet) in places, the die-offs have been particularly intense.

In the Balearic Islands, they live deeper, at 40 metres, and were therefore less impacted, Sartoretto says.

– ‘Forest fire’ –

In addition to the gorgonians, sponges and bivalves have also been affected.

The marine heatwave likewise battered mussel farming, with 150 tonnes of commercial mussels and 1,000 tonnes of young stock — for next year’s crop — lost in Spain over the summer.

A drop in temperatures in the Mediterranean could help to save those corals that were spared in the summer die-off, says Basthard-Bogain, although she worries that any pathogens that may have spread because of the heat would still be present in the waters. 

There are fears, too, that another hot spell cannot be ruled out before the end of the autumn. 

Sartoretto says he worries that repeated periods of heat stress could be devastating for the corals. 

“We can ask ourselves about the possibility of their disappearance,” he says, adding that their reproduction rate is very slow. 

“Like after a forest fire on land,” he says, “they will take decades to regenerate.”

Biden laying foundation for green energy investments: Yellen

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen visited a solar company in North Carolina to tout the administration's actions to boost investment in clean energy technolgy and lower costs

US President Joe Biden’s push for green energy tax credits will help boost a massive ramp up in private investment that will create jobs and lower energy costs for American families, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Tuesday.

Yellen called the administration’s plan “the most aggressive action that we’ve ever taken to address the climate crisis.”

She traveled to North Carolina to tour a solar plant and tout policies included in the recently-approved Inflation Reduction Act, which together with the Infrastructure Law include more than $430 billion in energy investments.

The legislation provides tax credits to households to make their homes more energy efficient or switch to cleaner sources, which will help lower costs, Yellen said.

But the administration’s approach also “rests on harnessing the engagement of the private sector,” the official said in her speech, delivered in front of an array of solar panels. 

“Beyond the consumer tax credits, we expect a significant mobilization of private investment into the clean energy sector,” she said. “These investments will accelerate the transition to our green energy future and lower energy costs for American households and businesses.”

In addition, “They will secure our energy supply against global price shocks. And they will provide good-paying, high-quality jobs across America.” 

Yellen said the transition is critical to address climate change which has seen more costly storms arise across the globe. 

“Climate change poses a grave risk to the productive capacity of our economy while also impacting its stability,” she said. 

But the transition to a clean energy economy also brings lower costs and “significant economic opportunities in high-growth industries, while building economic resilience and creating good-paying jobs across the country.”

Hurricane Ian leaves western Cuba battered, takes aim for Florida

With maximum sustained windspeeds of 125 miles (205 kilometers) per hour, Ian pummeled Cuba's western regions for over five hours before its eye moved out over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico

The powerful Category 3 Hurricane Ian battered western Cuba on Tuesday causing significant damage and prompting mass evacuations, with the storm expected to strengthen as it heads north towards the US state of Florida.

With maximum sustained winds of 125 miles (205 kilometers) per hour, Ian pummeled the island nation’s western regions for more than five hours before its eye moved out over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico.

Authorities have not yet been able to assess the damage, but residents described “destruction” and posted images on social media of flooded streets and felled trees.

No deaths or injuries have yet been reported.

“Desolation and destruction. These are terrifying hours. Nothing is left here,” said a 70-year-old resident of the western city of Pinar del Rio in a message to his journalist son that was shared on social media.

Ian is expected to “keep heading northwards, gradually moving over the southeast of the Gulf of Mexico, moving its center away from Cuban territory,” said the Cuba’s Insmet meteorological institute.

The US National Hurricane Center (NHC) said Ian, classified as a major hurricane, made landfall just southwest of the town of La Coloma in Pinar del Rio province at about 4:30 am local time (0830 GMT).

About 40,000 people had been evacuated from their homes in the western province, which was bearing the brunt of the storm, local authorities said.

In the town of Consolacion del Sur, images captured by AFP showed downed power lines, flooded streets and a scattering of damaged rooftops.

An official at the state electricity company said power was out in the provinces of Pinar del Rio and Artemisa.

Those were two of the three provinces put on maximum alert Monday night.

– ‘Storm surge’ –

With the hurricane moving north, Florida’s western coast from Fort Myers to Tampa Bay was at greatest risk of “life-threatening” storm surges, the NHC said.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis said 2.5 million people were under evacuation orders as officials scrambled to prepare for the storm’s forecast landing on Wednesday.

“In some areas there will be catastrophic flooding and life threatening storm surge,” DeSantis said at a press conference on Tuesday.

He urged residents to follow evacuation orders and warned that though Ian’s exact path was still uncertain “the impacts will be far far broader.”

“When you have five to ten feet (1.5 to 3 meters) of storm surge that is not something that you want to be a part of. Mother Nature is a very fearsome adversary.” DeSantis said.

The governor on Monday urged residents to stock up on food, water, medicine and fuel, and he called up 7,000 National Guard members to help with the effort.

Authorities in several Florida municipalities, including Miami, Fort Lauderdale and Tampa, have been distributing free sandbags to residents to help protect their homes from the risk of flooding.

Tampa International Airport said it would suspend operations on Tuesday at 5:00 pm local time (2100 GMT).

US President Joe Biden has approved emergency aid in Florida through the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), while even NASA on the state’s east coast took precautions, rolling back its massive Moon rocket into its storage hanger for protection.

Like DeSantis, FEMA administrator Deanne Criswell highlighted the danger of storm surge, saying it was the agency’s “biggest concern.”

“If people are told to evacuate by their local officials, please listen to them. The decision you choose to make may be the difference between life and death,” she said.

– Fiona’s wake –

The Caribbean and parts of eastern Canada are still counting the cost of powerful storm Fiona, which tore through last week, claiming several lives.

Half a million residents in the US territory of Puerto Rico were still without power, according to a tracking website, as the island’s governor called on the federal government to waive a policy limiting which ships are able to dock there.

When Fiona arrived as a post-tropical cyclone in Canada on Saturday, it was still packing intense winds of 80 miles per hour, bringing torrential rain and waves of up to 40 feet (12 meters).

Storm surge swept at least 20 homes into the sea in the town of Channel-Port aux Basques, on the southwestern tip of Newfoundland, while three people are believed to have died.

Blasts recorded before Russia-Europe pipeline leaks

Masses of bubbles were photographed on the surface of the water

Explosions were recorded before mysterious leaks in two Baltic Sea gas pipelines linking Russia and Europe, seismologists said Tuesday, raising suspicions of sabotage amid tensions over Moscow’s war in Ukraine.

Photos taken by the Danish military showed large masses of bubbles on the surface of the water emanating from the three leaks in Sweden and Denmark’s economic zones north of Poland, from 200 to 1,000 metres (656 feet to 0.62 miles) in diameter.

Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said that while the details of what happened were not yet known, “we see clearly that it’s an act of sabotage, one that probably marks the next step of escalation of the situation in Ukraine”.

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen meanwhile said it was “hard to imagine that it’s accidental”.

The Swedish National Seismic Network recorded two “massive releases of energy” shortly before the gas leaks near their locations off the coast of the Danish island of Bornholm, Uppsala University seismologist Peter Schmidt told AFP.

“With energy releases this big there isn’t much else than a blast that could cause it,” he added. “You can see that they are quite sudden. It is a very sudden energy release. It’s not a slow collapse of something.”

Russia said earlier that it was “extremely concerned” about the leaks. Asked by reporters whether it could be an act of sabotage, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that at the moment “it is impossible to exclude any options”.

Ukraine, however, pointed the finger directly at Moscow, saying it was “nothing more than a terrorist attack planned by Russia and an act of aggression towards the EU”.

A White House official said the United States would not speculate on the cause but was ready to support European efforts to investigate the leaks.

The Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines have been at the centre of geopolitical tensions in recent months as Russia cut gas supplies to Europe in suspected retaliation against Western sanctions following its invasion of Ukraine.

While the pipelines — operated by a consortium majority-owned by Russian gas giant Gazprom — are not currently in operation, they both still contain gas.

One of the leaks on Nord Stream 1 occurred in the Danish economic zone and the other in the Swedish economic zone, while the Nord Stream 2 leak was in the Danish economic zone.

A leak was first reported on Nord Stream 2 on Monday.

Danish climate and energy minister Dan Jorgensen confirmed the two Nord Stream 1 leaks in a statement to AFP on Tuesday.

“It is too early to say anything about the causes of the incidents,” the Danish Ministry of Climate, Energy and Utilities said in a statement.

Two Danish military vessels have been dispatched to the area, while Sweden’s government called an emergency meeting to be held on Tuesday evening.

Navigational warnings have been issued for a distance of five nautical miles and a flight height of 1,000 metres (3,280 feet).

– ‘Extremely rare’ –

“Gas pipeline leaks are extremely rare and we therefore see a reason to increase the level of preparedness following the incidents we have witnessed over the past 24 hours,” Danish Energy Agency director Kristoffer Bottzauw said in a statement.

The European Commission said it was too early to speculate on the causes of the leaks.

“We believe we do not have the elements in order to determine what is the reason for the leak. And obviously any act of sabotage on any infrastructure is something that we would condemn,” commission spokesman Eric Mamer told reporters.

A Nord Stream spokesperson told AFP they had not been able to assess the damage but conceded that “an incident where three pipes experience difficulties at the same time on the same day is not common.”

– ‘Targeted attack’ –

Built in parallel to the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, Nord Stream 2 was intended to double the capacity for Russian gas imports to Germany.

But Berlin blocked newly-completed Nord Stream 2 in the days before the war.

Germany, which has been highly dependent on imports of fossil fuels from Russia to meet its energy needs, has since come under acute stress as Moscow’s supplies dwindle.

Russian energy giant Gazprom progressively reduced the volumes of gas being delivered via Nord Stream 1 until it shut the pipeline completely at the end of August, blaming Western sanctions for the delay of necessary repairs to the pipeline. 

Germany has rebuffed Gazprom’s technical explanation for the cut, instead accusing Moscow of wielding energy as a weapon amid tensions over the war in Ukraine.

Meanwhile, German daily Tagesspiegel reported that the leaks might be the result of “targeted attacks”. 

“We cannot imagine a scenario that is not a targeted attack,” a source close to the government and relevant authorities was quoted as saying in the newspaper.

Blasts recorded before Russia-Europe pipeline leaks

large masses of bubbles on the surface of the water emanating from the three leaks located in Sweden's and Denmark's economic zones, spreading from 200 to 1,000 metres (656 feet to 0.62 miles) in diameter

Explosions were recorded before mysterious leaks in two Baltic Sea gas pipelines linking Russia and Europe, seismologists said Tuesday, raising suspicions of sabotage amid tensions over Moscow’s war in Ukraine.

Photos taken by the Danish military showed large masses of bubbles on the surface of the water emanating from the three leaks located in Sweden’s and Denmark’s economic zones, spreading from 200 to 1,000 metres (656 feet to 0.62 miles) in diameter.

“It’s hard to imagine that it’s accidental,” said Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, noting that it was “unusual” for the leaks to happen at such a distance from each other.

The Swedish National Seismic Network recorded two “massive releases of energy” shortly prior to the gas leaks and near their locations off the coast of the Danish island of Bornholm, Peter Schmidt, an Uppsala University seismologist told AFP.

“With energy releases this big there isn’t much else than a blast that could cause it,” he added. “You can see that they are quite sudden. It is a very sudden energy release. It’s not a slow collapse of something.”

Russia said earlier that it was “extremely concerned” about the leaks. Asked by reporters whether it could be an act of sabotage, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that at the moment “it is impossible to exclude any options”.

Ukraine, however, pointed the finger directly at Moscow, saying the incident was “nothing more than a terrorist attack planned by Russia and an act of aggression towards the EU”.

A White House officials said the United States would not speculate on the cause but was ready to support European efforts to investigate the leaks.

The Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines have been at the centre of geopolitical tensions in recent months as Russia cut gas supplies to Europe in suspected retaliation against Western sanctions following its invasion of Ukraine.

While the pipelines, which are operated by a consortium majority-owned by Russian gas giant Gazprom, are not currently in operation, they both still contain gas.

One of the leaks on Nord Stream 1 occurred in the Danish economic zone and the other in the Swedish economic zone, while the Nord Stream 2 leak was in the Danish economic zone.

A leak was first reported on Nord Stream 2 on Monday.

Danish climate and energy minister Dan Jorgensen confirmed the two Nord Stream 1 leaks in a statement to AFP on Tuesday.

“It is too early to say anything about the causes of the incidents,” the Danish Ministry of Climate, Energy and Utilities said in a statement.

Two Danish military vessels have been dispatched to the area, while Sweden called an emergency cabinet meeting to be held on Tuesday evening.

Navigational warnings have been issued for a distance of five nautical miles and a flight height of 1,000 metres (3,280 feet).

– ‘Extremely rare’ –

“Gas pipeline leaks are extremely rare and we therefore see a reason to increase the level of preparedness following the incidents we have witnessed over the past 24 hours,” Danish Energy Agency director Kristoffer Bottzauw said in a statement.

The European Commission said it was too early to speculate on the causes of the leaks.

“We believe we do not have the elements in order to determine what is the reason for the leak. And obviously any act of sabotage on any infrastructure is something that we would condemn,” commission spokesman Eric Mamer told reporters.

A Nord Stream spokesperson told AFP that they had not been able to assess the damage but conceded that “an incident where three pipes experience difficulties at the same time on the same day is not common.”

The Danish energy agency told the Ritzau news agency that only the area where the gas plume is located will be affected by the leak, but methane escaping into the atmosphere has a “climate-damaging effect”.

– ‘Targeted attack’ –

Built in parallel to the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, Nord Stream 2 was intended to double the capacity for Russian gas imports to Germany.

But Berlin blocked newly-completed Nord Stream 2 in the days before the war.

Germany, which has been highly dependent on imports of fossil fuels from Russia to meet its energy needs, has since come under acute stress as Moscow has dwindled supplies.

Russian energy giant Gazprom progressively reduced the volumes of gas being delivered via Nord Stream 1 until it shut the pipeline completely at the end of August, blaming Western sanctions for the delay of necessary repairs to the pipeline. 

Germany has rebuffed Gazprom’s technical explanation for the cut, instead accusing Moscow of wielding energy as a weapon amid tensions over the war in Ukraine.

Meanwhile, German daily Tagesspiegel reported that the leaks might be the result of “targeted attacks”. 

“We cannot imagine a scenario that is not a targeted attack,” a source close to the government and relevant authorities, was quoted as saying in the newspaper.

Mass evacuations in Vietnam ahead of Super Typhoon Noru

Vietnam has tried to evacuate almost 400,000 people as Super Typhoon Noru draws near

More than 200,000 people in Vietnam took refuge in shelters Tuesday as Super Typhoon Noru barrelled towards its central coast, with forecasters predicting the storm would be one of the biggest to hit the country.

Almost half of Vietnam’s airports have been shut, schools and offices across several provinces — including in the busy city of Danang — were closed and residents rushed to find shelter before the expected arrival of the typhoon on Wednesday.

After slamming into the Philippines earlier this week, where it killed six people, Noru is predicted to make landfall as a super typhoon before 11 am (0400 GMT) and then subside to a severe typhoon as it makes its way inland.

Vietnam’s flood and storm control authority said wind speeds would reach 160 kilometres per hour (100 miles per hour), equalling Typhoon Xangsane — which hit Danang in 2006 and killed 76 people.

Authorities said they have evacuated nearly 260,000 people from their homes, including in the popular tourist city of Hoi An, where residents were brought to a primary school.

“I wanted to leave. My house is not very strong. I am afraid its roof might be blown away when the typhoon hits,” Huynh Mua told AFP, clutching a plastic bag full of clothes, a blanket and several packets of instant noodles.

Three hundred houses in the coastal province of Quang Tri had their roofs blown off late Tuesday as winds began picking up speed. In nearby Hue, trees were blown to the ground.

In Danang, Vietnam’s third-biggest city, all shops and hotels were closed, while residents were banned from going out on the streets. 

The defence ministry has mobilised around 40,000 soldiers and 200,000 militia members, equipped with armoured vehicles and boats in preparation for rescue and relief operations, state media said.

According to data from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, located in Hawaii, Noru will be only the sixth major typhoon to hit Vietnam since 1945.

Noru hit the Philippines’ Luzon island on Sunday and Monday, toppling trees, knocking out power and flooding low-lying communities.

Five rescuers were killed after being sent to help flooded residents, while another man died after he was hit by a landslide. Officials estimate about $2.4 million worth of crops were damaged.

Scientists urge top publisher to withdraw faulty climate study

The study purports to review data on possible changes in the frequency or intensity of rainfall, cyclones, tornadoes, droughts and other extreme weather events

A fundamentally flawed study claiming that scientific evidence of a climate crisis is lacking should be withdrawn from the peer-reviewed journal in which it was published, top climate scientists have told AFP.

Appearing earlier this year in The European Physical Journal Plus, published by Springer Nature, the study purports to review data on possible changes in the frequency or intensity of rainfall, cyclones, tornadoes, droughts and other extreme weather events.

It has been viewed thousands of times on social media and cited by some mainstream media, such as Sky News Australia.

“On the basis of observation data, the climate crisis that, according to many sources, we are experiencing today, in not evident,” reads the summary of the 20-page study.

Four prominent climate scientists contacted by AFP all said the study — of which they had been unaware — grossly manipulates data, cherry picking some facts and ignoring others that would contradict their discredited assertions.  

“The paper gives the appearance of being specifically written to make the case that there is no climate crisis, rather than presenting an objective, comprehensive, up-to-date assessment,” said Richard Betts, Head of Climate Impacts Research at Britain’s Met Office. 

The authors ignore the authoritative Intergovernmental Report on Climate Change (IPCC) report published a couple of months before their study was submitted to Springer Nature, Betts noted.

“Human-induced climate change is already affecting many weather and climate extremes in every region across the globe,” the IPCC concluded in that report. 

“Evidence of observed changes in extremes such as heatwaves, heavy precipitation, droughts and tropical cyclones, and, in particular, their attribution to human influence, has strengthened” since the previous report eight years earlier, it said.

“They are writing this article in bad faith,” said Friederike Otto, a senior climatologist at the Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment. 

– ‘Climate sceptics’ –

“They do not have a section on heat waves” — mentioned only in passing — “where the observed trends are so incredibly obvious”, Otto said.  

The peer-reviewed paper by four Italian scientists appeared in January 2022 in one of the more than 2,000 journals published by Springer Nature, one of the most prestigious science publishers in the world.

When asked to explain how a study so clearly at odds with current climate science could have passed peer review and been published, Springer Nature said: “We can’t comment at this time.”

Lead author Gianluca Alimonti is a physicist at a nuclear physics institute. The three co-authors are Luigi Mariani, an agricultural meteorologist, and the physicists Franco Prodi and Renato Angelo Ricci.

The study is written “by people not working in climatology and obviously unfamiliar with the topic and relevant data,” said Stefan Rahmstorf, Head of Earth Systems at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. 

“It is not published in a climate journal — this is a common avenue taken by ‘climate sceptics’ in order to avoid peer review by real experts in the field.” 

“They simply ignore studies that don’t fit their narrative and have come to the opposite conclusion.”

All four of the experts consulted by AFP suggested that the study should never have been published in the first place, and two of them called for it to be withdrawn.

“I do not know this journal, but if it is a self-respecting one it should withdraw the article,” said Rahmstorf.

Peter Cox, a professor of climate system dynamics at the University of Exeter, said the study “isn’t good scientifically”, but feared that striking the article from the journal would “lead to further publicity and could be presented as censorship”.

Otto shared this concern, but said the study should be repudiated all the same.

“If the journal cares about science they should withdraw it loudly and publicly, saying that it should not have been published.”

Betts stopped short of calling for withdrawal, drawing a distinction between cherry-picking data and outright fraud.

Sabotage suspected after leaks in Russia-Europe gas pipelines

The Nord Stream pipelines have been at the centre of geopolitical tensions in recent months as Russia cut gas supplies to Europe

The two Nord Stream gas pipelines linking Russia and Europe have been hit by unexplained leaks, Scandinavian authorities said Tuesday, raising suspicions of sabotage.

The pipelines have been at the centre of geopolitical tensions in recent months as Russia cut gas supplies to Europe in suspected retaliation against Western sanctions following its invasion of Ukraine.

Russia said it was “extremely concerned” about the leaks. Asked by reporters whether it could be an act of sabotage, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that at the moment “it is impossible to exclude any options”.

While the pipelines, which are operated by a consortium majority-owned by Russian gas giant Gazprom, are not currently in operation, they both still contain gas but the environmental impact appeared limited so far.

One of the leaks on Nord Stream 1 occurred in the Danish economic zone and the other in the Swedish economic zone, while the Nord Stream 2 leak was in the Danish economic zone.

A leak was first reported on Nord Stream 2 on Monday.

“Authorities have now been informed that there have been another two leaks on Nord Stream 1, which likewise is not in operation but contains gas,” Danish climate and energy minister Dan Jorgensen told AFP in a statement on Tuesday.

“It is too early to say anything about the causes of the incidents,” the Danish Ministry of Climate, Energy and Utilities said in a statement.

Denmark’s energy agency has, however, called for “higher levels of preparedness in the electricity and gas sector” in the country, Jorgensen said.

– ‘Not common’ –

During a visit to Poland for the inauguration of the Baltic Pipe Project — connecting Poland and Denmark to a North Sea pipeline — Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen also told Danish media “it’s hard to imagine that it’s accidental.”

The EU Commission meanwhile stressed that it was too early to speculate on the causes of the leaks.

“We believe we do not have the elements in order to determine what is the reason for the leak. And obviously any act of sabotage on any infrastructure is something that we would condemn,” EU commission spokesman Eric Mamer told reporters.

A Nord Stream spokesperson told AFP that they had not been able to assess the damage but conceded that “an incident where three pipes experience difficulties at the same time on the same day is not common.”

The Danish energy agency told the Ritzau news agency that only the area where the gas plume is located will be affected by the leak, but methane escaping into the atmosphere has a “climate-damaging effect”.

“Gas pipeline leaks are extremely rare and we therefore see a reason to increase the level of preparedness following the incidents we have witnessed over the past 24 hours,” director of the Danish Energy Agency Kristoffer Bottzauw said in a statement.

Built in parallel to the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, Nord Stream 2 was intended to double the capacity for Russian gas imports to Germany.

But Berlin blocked newly-completed Nord Stream 2 in the days before the war.

Germany, which has been highly dependent on imports of fossil fuels from Russia to meet its energy needs, has since come under acute stress as Moscow has dwindled supplies.

Russian energy giant Gazprom progressively reduced the volumes of gas being delivered via Nord Stream 1 until it shut the pipeline completely at the end of August, blaming Western sanctions for the delay of necessary repairs to the pipeline. 

– ‘Targeted attack’ –

Germany has rebuffed Gazprom’s technical explanation for the cut, instead accusing Moscow of wielding energy as a weapon amid tensions over the war in Ukraine.

Meanwhile, German daily Tagesspiegel reported that “the Nord Stream pipelines may have been damaged by targeted attacks and leaked as a result”. 

According to a source close to the government and relevant authorities, quoted in the newspaper, “everything speaks against a coincidence”. 

“We cannot imagine a scenario that is not a targeted attack,” the source said.

As a result of the leaks, navigational warnings have been issued for a distance of five nautical miles and a flight height of 1,000 metres (3,280 feet).

The incidents on the two pipelines have no impact on the supply of gas to Denmark, the Danish energy minister said. 

Heavy floods ravage West Africa farmlands

Flooding has hit most states in Nigeria including northeast Adamawa State

Nigeria rice farmer Adamu Garba squelched barefoot through his paddy fields, surveying damage from devastating floods that have destroyed farmland across the north of the country. 

Parts of West and central Africa have been battered by floods ravaging farms like Garba’s rice plots, wiping out crops and risking worsening food insecurity in a region already struggling with economic fallout from the Ukraine war.

Just in Nigeria, constant heavy rains caused the worst flooding in a decade, killing more than 300 people since the start of the rainy season and displacing at least 100,000, according to emergency officials.

“It is devastating but there is nothing we can do, we just have to be strong,” Garba told AFP at his farm near the city of Kano, where he normally harvests 200 bags of rice.

“Now in the condition we find ourselves we are not sure we will harvest half a bag here.”

Nigeria’s National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) spokesman Manzo Ezekiel said flooding has been unprecedented due to continuous rainfall with 29 of the country’s 36 states affected.

“Thousands of farmlands have also been destroyed. The figures will rise further because we are still experiencing torrential rains and flooding,” he said.

Flood waters were made worse partly by neighbouring Cameroon’s release of excess waters from a dam and by Nigeria releasing waters to ease pressure on its Kainji and Jebba dams, Ezekiel said.

However, an official with Eneo, operator of Cameroon’s Lagdo hydro-electricity plant, said excess waters released from the dam  contributed only a small amount to flooding.

Parts of Nigeria, from northern farmlands to the coastal economic capital Lagos, are prone to flooding in the rainy season, though NEMA says this year is the worst since 2012, when 363 people died and more than 2.1 million were displaced.

– Climate change –

The Niger river — West Africa’s main river — flows through northern Niger past Benin’s northern border into Nigeria before reaching in the Gulf of Guinea on the Atlantic through southern Nigeria’s Niger Delta. 

Heavy rains falling in Niger since June and the severe floods have claimed 159 lives and affected more than 225,000 people, making this rainy season one of the deadliest in history, emergency officials said earlier this month.

“According to our studies, we can link these rains to climate change in general,” said Katiellou Gaptia Lawan, Director General of National Meteorology of Niger. 

“The rains are becoming more and more intense and the extreme precipitation is increasing.”

Rains in Niger this year have also totally destroyed or damaged more than 25,900 homes, and impacted farmland and cattle, authorities said.

The June to September rainy season regularly kills people in Niger, including in the northern desert areas, but the toll is particularly heavy this year. 

In 2021, 70 people died and 200,000 were affected. 

In Chad, the UN said more than 622,500 people had been affected “at different levels” by flooding in more than half of the country, including the capital N’Djamena, with most impacted areas bordering the north of Cameroon. 

According to the United Nations, in 2021, 5.5 million Chadians, more than a third of the population of the landlocked country were already in need of emergency humanitarian aid, even before the floods.

In northern Nigeria, Kabiru Alassan, a 19-year old farmer, said flood waters washed sand from the roads and covered his rice fields. But he was trying to salvage what he could.

“This is the little we have left by Allah’s grace which we are going to harvest,” he said.

“The rains have never been this destructive. We pray never to experience such a nightmare.”

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