AFP UK

Extreme weather events like Hurricane Ian have provoked calls for US disaster policy to adapt to climate change

After an extreme weather event, such as Hurricane Ian which devastated parts of Florida last month, most Americans choose to rebuild rather than move to less hazardous areas.

But as climate change increases the frequency and scale of natural disasters, does US policy need to adapt?

Gavin Smith, a professor of environmental planning at the University of North Carolina, worked for several states following major hurricanes, including Katrina in Mississippi (2005) and Matthew in North Carolina (2016).

According to him, current reconstruction standards are not up to the challenges posed by climate change, but correcting them will require real “political will.”

Smith’s responses to AFP have been lightly edited and condensed for clarity.

– Current reconstruction rules –

Q: What are the rules for re-construction after a hurricane, and are they adapted to climate change?

A: Communities must comply with the local codes and standards in place in their jurisdiction before the storm struck.

In the US, we have the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), which has historically been subsidized by the federal government. 

For a community to join the program, it has to adopt certain flood risk reduction standards. They include building codes as well as land use plans. 

Then, if a home is damaged in the storm more than 50 percent of their value, it must be built back to the most recent code and standards in place.

Our standard for flood is rebuilding largely back to the “100 year flood,” more accurately termed the one percent annual chance flood event. But in an era of climate change, that “100 year” flood is happening more and more often.

Most risk reduction codes and standards often reflect a climate of the past.

For example, we spent $14 billion rebuilding the levee system in New Orleans after hurricane Katrina. That levee system was built back to the “100 year flood.” 

So you could make the argument that in the era of climate change, that levee system is already out of date. 

– Political will –

Q: What do you expect from government officials?

A: Disasters can present opportunities to rebuild communities safer.

What I’m suggesting is that if we’re going to spend hundreds of millions of dollars building these communities back, we need to require communities to adopt higher codes and standards. 

But that takes political will of both members of Congress and local elected officials.

These are really difficult trillion dollar questions.

You’ll also have builders and the private sector saying, “We should limit those kinds of regulations, as we need to quickly rebuild.”

It takes a lot of political will for a mayor or for a governor to say “No, we’ve got to do what’s right in the long run.:

Unfortunately, people don’t get elected by saying “I am going to require higher standards.”

That’s not a winning slogan. It takes political will to say, enough is enough, we need to adopt higher standards, it’s going to take time, cost more, and people may have to pay more to do it.

That said, we also need to make sure we include equity in processes adopted to develop those standards. 

The shrimpers and the crabbers that live in a very modest house on the water, if we make them adopt higher standards, can they afford it?

– Rules for resilience – 

Q: Concretely, what would be these better standards?

A: A really simple way to think about it is “where” and “how” you build in relation to natural hazards, including those exacerbated by climate change.

The “how” include elevating structures, more stringent standards for wind performance, like better roof shingles, hardening our infrastructure — communication systems, bridges, roads, levees… We can also do this by protecting natural systems like dunes and wetlands.

The “where” is what we would often refer to as land use planning.

Should we be putting a hospital, or a school, in an area subject to storm surge? Probably not. 

A community may choose to say, we’re not going to build a house within 200 meters of the beach. 

Or adopt a gradual disinvestment strategy in extremely risky areas (managed retreat). It’s very difficult to do politically, but it’s happening on a small scale.

Resilience is really about a series of protective measures or choices. It’s not just one. A levee, if that’s your only protection and it fails, to me that’s not resilience. 

Experts warn the frequency of supercharged hurricanes and floods in the southern United States is only expected to increase over time — but the region's population is still rising

There’s nothing in the world that would convince Cape Coral resident Kenneth Lowe to leave — not even having to empty his home of flood water a week after Hurricane Ian pummeled the city.

“Southwest Florida is my heaven on earth and hurricanes come with South Florida. So you just have to take it,” the 28-year-old tells AFP, standing in a street strewn with debris.

“It’s my favorite place, it’s worth it.”

Experts warn the frequency of supercharged hurricanes and floods in this climate-prone region is only expected to increase over time — but the population of the southeastern United States continues to rise.

The paradox is especially striking in Cape Coral. 

Between 2010 and 2021, its population grew by 33 percent to 204,000 people, according to census data. Founded in 1958, it embodies the Florida dream that many come looking for.

Navigable canals criss-cross the region, connecting to the Caloosahatchee River, which gives way to the Gulf of Mexico. This affords many people the chance to enjoy a house on the water, and even space for a small boat.

But developing Cape Coral meant first draining the swamp it was built on — and destroying the mangroves and coral reefs that acted as natural defenses against waves and storm surges.

The city was pulverized by Ian, which intensified especially rapidly, fueled by warm waters and high humidity.

A study in Nature Communications earlier this year found that due to climate change, Atlantic hurricanes dump around 10 percent more water during their rainiest three-hours.

In the streets of Cape Coral, dozens of residents are now piling up their belongings in front of their homes: beds, cupboards, refrigerators that have become unusable.

“We will just rebuild and, hopefully, it will be another 100 years before the next big one,” said Tamara Lang, 56.

Lang moved from Chicago and bought her house in Cape Coral just a few months ago — and says she didn’t factor hurricanes into her decision. But she too has no intention of leaving. 

“We love it here,” she said. “This has been our happy place since we got it.”

– Rapid growth –

According to sociologist Mathew Hauer, who studies the impacts of climate change on society, people are not adequately informed about the risks they are taking on.

“If people really understood the flood risk of properties, we’d see changes in where people are purchasing homes and where they’re choosing to live,” said Hauer, an assistant professor at Florida State University.

Another problem: flood zone maps drawn up by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) are out of date, says Gavin Smith, a professor of landscape architecture and environmental planning at North Carolina State University.

“It should be viewed as a minimum standard, but they’re often used to regulate the where and how of development,” he told AFP.

Census data reveals a population explosion in the coastal counties of North and South Carolina, as well as Georgia. Florida itself added 2.7 million residents between 2010 and 2020.

“It’s one of the fastest growing regions in the US,” said Hauer, adding: “I don’t see any sign yet that the trend toward migration down into the Sunbelt is going to turn.”

But according to a paper he published in Nature Climate Change, if sea levels rise around three feet (0.9 meters) between now and the end of the century, some 4.3 million people in the continental United States would be forced to move.

Coastal residents of Florida make up about half that figure.

– ‘Immobility paradox’ – 

Retirees from northern climes — including seasonal migrants known as snowbirds — have long been drawn to the “Sunshine State.”

In addition to their beauty, the state’s coastlines are a vital economic resource, supporting a massive tourism industry.

And once you’re settled, it’s not easy to relocate.

Sixty-seven percent of Americans would rather rebuild than leave an area impacted by a severe weather event, according to a 2021 Marist Poll.

“This is what we call the immobility paradox,” said Hauer. 

A psychological tendency against giving up surely factors into the decision-making — but there are also social dimensions like leaving loved ones, and the harsh economic constraint of having to find a new job, he added.

Smith notes that discounting the true risks one faces is a “universal human trait.”

“I don’t think we are going to leave because we have nowhere to go,” said Irene Giordano, 56, who moved south in 2019 from Virginia to Cape Coral.

During Ian, water rose a foot-and-a-half high in her house.

“I’m praying that this is the last one in my lifetime,” she said.

This handout picture released by NGO Imazon shows an Angelim Vermelho tree (Dinizia Excelsa Ducke) which is the tallest ever found in the Amazon

After three years of planning, five expeditions and a two-week trek through dense jungle, scientists have reached the tallest tree ever found in the Amazon rainforest, a towering specimen the size of a 25-storey building.

The giant tree, whose top juts out high above the canopy in the Iratapuru River Nature Reserve in northern Brazil, is an angelim vermelho (scientific name: Dinizia excelsa) measuring 88.5 meters (290 feet) tall and 9.9 meters (32 feet) around — the biggest ever identified in the Amazon, scientists say.

Researchers first spotted the enormous tree in satellite images in 2019 as part of a 3D mapping project.

A team of academics, environmentalists and local guides mounted an expedition to try to reach it later that year. But after a 10-day trek through difficult terrain, exhausted, low on supplies and with a team member falling ill, they had to turn back.

Three more expeditions to the reserve’s remote Jari Valley region, which sits at the border between the states of Amapa and Para, reached several other gigantic trees, including the tallest Brazil nut tree ever recorded in the Amazon — 66 meters.

But the enormous angelim vermelho remained elusive until the September 12-25 expedition, when researchers traveled 250 kilometers (155 miles) by boat up rivers with treacherous rapids, plus another 20 kilometers on foot across mountainous jungle terrain to reach it.

One person on the 19-member expedition was bitten by what the team doctor believes was a poisonous spider.

But it was worth it, says forest engineer Diego Armando Silva of Amapa Federal University, who helped organize the trip.

“It was one of the most beautiful things I’ve ever seen. Just divine,” Silva, 33, told AFP.

“You’re in the middle of this forest where humankind has never set foot before, with absolutely exuberant nature.”

After camping under the massive tree, the group collected leaves, soil and other samples, which will now be analyzed to study questions including how old the tree is — at least 400 to 600 years, Silva estimates — why the region has so many giant trees, and how much carbon they store.

Around half of the weight of the region’s giant trees is carbon absorbed from the atmosphere — fundamental in helping curb climate change, says Silva.

But despite its remoteness, the region’s giants are under threat.

Angelim vermelho wood is prized by loggers, and the Iratapuru reserve is being invaded by illegal gold miners infamous for bringing ecological destruction, says Jakeline Pereira of environmental group Imazon, which helped organize the expedition.

“We were so thrilled to make this find,” says Pereira.

“It’s super important at a time when the Amazon is facing such frightening levels of deforestation.”

Over the past three years, average annual deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon has increased 75 percent from the previous decade.

This handout picture released by NGO Imazon shows an Angelim Vermelho tree (Dinizia Excelsa Ducke) which is the tallest ever found in the Amazon

After three years of planning, five expeditions and a two-week trek through dense jungle, scientists have reached the tallest tree ever found in the Amazon rainforest, a towering specimen the size of a 25-storey building.

The giant tree, whose top juts out high above the canopy in the Iratapuru River Nature Reserve in northern Brazil, is an angelim vermelho (scientific name: Dinizia excelsa) measuring 88.5 meters (290 feet) tall and 9.9 meters (32 feet) around — the biggest ever identified in the Amazon, scientists say.

Researchers first spotted the enormous tree in satellite images in 2019 as part of a 3D mapping project.

A team of academics, environmentalists and local guides mounted an expedition to try to reach it later that year. But after a 10-day trek through difficult terrain, exhausted, low on supplies and with a team member falling ill, they had to turn back.

Three more expeditions to the reserve’s remote Jari Valley region, which sits at the border between the states of Amapa and Para, reached several other gigantic trees, including the tallest Brazil nut tree ever recorded in the Amazon — 66 meters.

But the enormous angelim vermelho remained elusive until the September 12-25 expedition, when researchers traveled 250 kilometers (155 miles) by boat up rivers with treacherous rapids, plus another 20 kilometers on foot across mountainous jungle terrain to reach it.

One person on the 19-member expedition was bitten by what the team doctor believes was a poisonous spider.

But it was worth it, says forest engineer Diego Armando Silva of Amapa Federal University, who helped organize the trip.

“It was one of the most beautiful things I’ve ever seen. Just divine,” Silva, 33, told AFP.

“You’re in the middle of this forest where humankind has never set foot before, with absolutely exuberant nature.”

After camping under the massive tree, the group collected leaves, soil and other samples, which will now be analyzed to study questions including how old the tree is — at least 400 to 600 years, Silva estimates — why the region has so many giant trees, and how much carbon they store.

The region’s giant trees weigh up to 400,000 tonnes, around half of which is carbon absorbed from the atmosphere — fundamental in helping curb climate change, says Silva.

But despite its remoteness, the region’s giants are under threat.

Angelim vermelho wood is prized by loggers, and the Iratapuru reserve is being invaded by illegal gold miners infamous for bringing ecological destruction, says Jakeline Pereira of environmental group Imazon, which helped organize the expedition.

“We were so thrilled to make this find,” says Pereira.

“It’s super important at a time when the Amazon is facing such frightening levels of deforestation.”

Over the past three years, average annual deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon has increased 75 percent from the previous decade.

PSG's bus arrives at the Luz stadium in Lisbon in August 2020

Paris Saint-Germain will travel to Reims by bus, manager Christophe Galtier said on Friday, a month after provoking controversy by mocking a suggestion his team should stop taking short-haul flights.

“We will travel by bus, even if the bodies are tired. It is close to home, we will be very comfortable on our bus,” Galtier told PSG TV ahead of the visit to Reims for a Ligue 1 game on Saturday evening.

Last season, PSG went to Reims, 150 kilometres (93 miles) from the capital, by plane. 

On September 5, Galtier was asked why PSG had flown to Nantes which is 380km west of Paris but located on a high-speed train line.

The side — owned by an investment fund of major gas producer Qatar — boasted on social media after the game that they had made the round trip with shirt sponsors Qatar Airways.

Asked whether the club was taking its carbon footprint seriously, Galtier replied with sarcasm.

“We had a chat with our travel organisers earlier to see if we can travel by sand-yacht,” he said, referring to sail-powered buggies that are popular on some French beaches.

He later pleaded “misplaced humour” but insisted that he was personally “very conscientious” personally to favoured trains over planes when travelling. 

Icebergs float in Baffin Bay near Pituffik, Greenland in July 2022

US President Joe Biden’s administration released a new Arctic strategy on Friday as the strategically and environmentally important region suffers worsening effects from climate change and sees increased international competition.

Global warming is melting Arctic ice, opening previously closed areas to navigation and creating new opportunities for countries such as the United States, Russia and China to vie for resources and influence.

The situation is further complicated by the invasion of Ukraine by Russia — a major Arctic power — which has increased tensions between Moscow and Washington to a level not seen since the height of the Cold War.

“The Arctic — home to more than four million people, extensive natural resources, and unique ecosystems — is undergoing a dramatic transformation,” the strategy says.

“Driven by climate change, this transformation will challenge livelihoods in the Arctic, will create new economic opportunities, and could intensify strategic competition among countries.”

The strategy features four main pillars: security, climate change and environmental protection, sustainable economic development, and international cooperation.

“Our highest priority is to protect the American people and our sovereign territory and rights. We are committed to the security of our treaty allies and to supporting our partners in the region,” the strategy says.

To do this, Washington will “enhance and exercise both our military and civilian capabilities in the Arctic as required to deter threats and to anticipate, prevent, and respond to both natural and human-made incidents.”

As the impact of global warming grows, Washington wants to help Alaska — its northernmost state — to build resilience and adapt, and also aims to pursue international initiatives to mitigate emissions in the Arctic.

“Climate change generates greater impacts in the Arctic than in many more temperate regions, yielding unstable terrain, vulnerable coasts, changing ecosystems, and a worsening biodiversity crisis,” the strategy says.

– Russia cooperation ‘virtually impossible’ –

“We will support efforts to build Alaskan communities’ resilience in the face of dramatic changes on the Arctic’s horizon,” it says, noting that more than 60 percent of the state’s Native communities are considered “environmentally threatened.”

On the economic front, the strategy notes that melting Arctic ice — while a “stark indicator of accelerating climate change” — also presents opportunities.

“The US government will help create the conditions to catalyze responsible, inclusive, and transparent economic development in Alaska and across the Arctic,” it says, including via infrastructure development and supporting industries that increase opportunities for local communities.

The strategy says the United States values Arctic cooperation, but that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has dealt the prospects of working with Moscow a significant blow.

“Russia’s brutal war in Ukraine has made this cooperation in the Arctic virtually impossible… at present. However, maintaining cooperation with our allies and partners in the near-term remains essential to advancing our objectives for the region,” it says.

It has been nearly 10 years since the last US Arctic policy document was released, and the new strategy acknowledges both the changing natural and geopolitical environment.

“This strategy addresses the climate crisis with greater urgency, given the developments that we’ve seen over the last eight to nine years,” a senior US administration official said ahead of its release.

It also “recognizes the increased strategic competition that we’ve seen in the Arctic in terms of Russia and (China) over the last decade, and… seeks to position the US to effectively compete and also manage those tensions.”

Just Stop Oil is mounting a month-long series of protests in London

Britain’s Home Secretary Suella Braverman had a stark warning this week for direct-action protesters who use “guerilla tactics” to bring “chaos and misery” to the public.

“Whether you’re Just Stop Oil, Insulate Britain or Extinction Rebellion, you cross a line when you break the law — and that’s why we’ll keep putting you behind bars,” she said.

Braverman’s threat came as the Just Stop Oil coalition group, which wants an end to new fossil fuel licensing and production, embarked on a month-long series of protests in central London.

Dozens have been arrested this week for blocking roads and bridges, after similar protests that have brought gridlock to Britain’s motorways, blocked oil refineries and seen petrol pumps damaged.

Two Greenpeace protesters interrupted a speech by Prime Minister Liz Truss’s on Wednesday, accusing the government of backsliding on its commitments to reduce fossil fuel use and ban fracking.

Truss said Greenpeace and Extinction Rebellion were part of an “anti-growth coalition” with trade unions and the main opposition Labour party determined to derail her economic reforms.

“The fact is they prefer protesting to doing. They prefer talking on Twitter to taking tough decisions,” she told the Conservative party conference. 

But activists insist they are also taking action to highlight the climate emergency, which was blamed for pushing temperatures above 40 Celsius (104 Fahrenheit) in Britain this year for the first time

In London this week, threats of arrest — and tougher laws to come — failed to discourage protesters, many of whom took time off work and travelled from outside London.

“I’m prepared to be arrested because the thought of absolute social destruction is a lot worse,” retail worker Theresa Higginson, 24, who locked herself onto another protestor via a metal tube as they blocked a road at Trafalgar Square, told AFP on Thursday.

“We don’t want to do this,” added animal rights activist Gemma Barnes, 32. “We don’t want to be here. 

“But they (the government) have left us no other choice. We believe at this point that the only way to enact change is through civil resistance.”

– ‘They did nothing’ –

Direct-action protests about climate change have escalated in Britain in recent years, led by Extinction Rebellion and allied groups. 

Insulate Britain, which campaigns for more energy efficient homes, first came to public attention by blocking London’s busy M25 orbital motorway last year.

Just Stop Oil protesters have tried to disrupt an English Premier League football match by tying themselves to goalposts and got onto the track at the Silverstone circuit during the Formula One British Grand Prix.

Activists have glued themselves to the frames of well-known works of art at galleries around Britain and targeted the red carpet of the BAFTA awards.

The right-wing tabloid press regularly labels the protesters “eco-anarchists” and “eco-zealots”.

But in London this week, protesters said they were far from being stereotypical activists.

Instead they said they were normal people voicing public concern about climate change in Britain and around the world and “terror” about the future.

“It’s a luxury for us to be able to ignore it, to get on with our everyday life,” said former art school librarian Emma Brown, 30, referring to devastating recent floods in Pakistan.

Retiree Kris Welsch, 69, said police called in to deal with the protests were sympathetic and polite, giving multiple opportunities to abandon their roadblocks before they moved in to arrest them.

“They treat us with respect and we treat them with respect. They understand that they might have to deal with food insecurity and civil unrest in the coming years,” she added.

“This is the least I can do for the up and coming generations,” she said.

The government’s new Public Order Bill is winding its way through parliament, proposing to criminalise “lock-on” tactics and ban the obstruction of major transport work.

Just Stop Oil likened itself to the Suffragettes who campaigned for votes for women, Nelson Mandela’s anti-Apartheid struggle and Russians speaking out against the war in Ukraine.

“We are undeterred. Oil is killing people, now,” it said.

Gabriella Ditto, a 28-year-old mobiliser for the group, told onlookers at Thursday’s roadblock that they had no choice.

“Before we got to this point, we sent some petitions, we sent some strongly worded emails and we wrote to our MPs,” she said. 

“And they did nothing.”

Pakistan is facing a "second wave" of catastrophe following devasting floods

His head haloed by a whirlwind of mosquitoes, Aamir Hussain stands on the roof of his home in southern Pakistan surveying the fetid floodwaters all around.

Four months after the start of record monsoon rains linked to climate change, the standing water has curdled into a pestilent soup breeding malaria, cholera and dengue.

The UN has warned of a “second wave” of catastrophe, with the risk that deaths from water-borne disease and malnutrition will outstrip the 1,700 drowned and electrocuted in the initial cascade.

As dusk arrives in Hussain’s submerged village in Dadu district of Sindh province, so do the bugs, and the gamble that they will infect his wife and two children.

“The mosquitoes bite a lot and we fall sick,” said the 25-year-old, atop a brickwork compound framing a courtyard awash with putrid, sucking mud.

His brother, who shares this home, has already ventured off the roof to treat his sick children at hospital with borrowed cash.

“Some of our nets are torn now so we are worried,” said Hussain, whose infant son has fallen ill.

Sindh has been worst-hit by the catastrophic flooding which put a third of Pakistan underwater, displaced eight million, destroyed or damaged two million homes, crippled 1,500 hospitals and clinics and caused an estimated $28 billion in damages.

– Cascading disaster –

Climate change minister Sherry Rehman said this week that more than 20 million people are still in need “with futures that are entirely precarious”. Eight million of those require “urgent medical services”, she said.

Zahida Mallah has already been tipped over the edge.

In a bleak camp south of Dadu, outside the city of Hyderabad, the 35 year-old explained she is in mourning for her twin two-month-old sons.

One died on the day AFP visited, the other around two weeks ago at a separate camp. 

They were killed by “colds”, she said, after sleeping out in the open. She was offered a tent only after it was too late.

“We just keep floundering,” she lamented.

Nearby, the city of Johi is corralled by water, accessible via a ramshackle flotilla of canoes powered by greasy petrol engines.

Residents rallied to save the city as the rains lashed down, heaving sandbags into a snaking makeshift levee. But it cannot hold back the disease.

In a desperately rundown emergency clinic, a doctor treats unresponsive seven year-old Kashaf, a suspected malaria patient lying on dirty sheets with a clutch of pharmaceuticals at her feet.

“Perhaps it’s a natural disaster, or perhaps we are being tested by God, but whatever it is we are the victims,” said her father, 20 year-old Dildar Mastoi.

Under a black scarf his daughter’s eyes have rolled back into her head. She no longer recognises her parents — doctors say a fever has affected her brain.

Barely adults themselves, her mother and father fled rising waters twice before settling in a camp where they drink from a well they suspect is contaminated by flood water.

“From early evening until dawn, throughout the whole night, the mosquitoes are overwhelming,” said Kashaf’s mother, 19 year-old Bashiran Mastoi. “When the night approaches we start to worry.”

“Life at the camp is immensely miserable,” she said in a vigil on her child’s sickbed.

Medic Manzoor Shahani said there has been a “surge” in malaria, gastro illnesses, and dengue while “most of the patients are children and pregnant women”.

– ‘The hidden fever’ –

Before the floods southern Pakistan was already devastated by grinding poverty. Now aid only sporadically penetrates the patchwork swampland, while the true number of those in need has yet to even be discovered.

Doctors and officials offer contradicting figures, as they grapple to understand the scale. In Dadu the official death toll is just 23, but everyone privately agrees the real figure must be far higher.

“This is devastation beyond the government’s approach,” said provincial health monitor Faheem Soomro, as young doctors tally the day’s fresh patients at a boardroom table.

Half of malaria tests are coming back positive and most homes have suspected cases. 

Sindh has recorded 208,000 cases of malaria so far this year, a dramatic rise from 2021, when cases were reported.

Left untreated — as it certainly is in the stranded swathes of Sindh — malaria can quickly turn fatal. In a normal year there are 50,000 deaths from malaria in Pakistan.

Soomro describes it as “the hidden fever”. It has vague flu-like symptoms — as the mosquito-borne parasite enters the liver and bloodstream, in severe cases swelling the brain.

The healthcare disaster is most easily monitored in camps — there are 19 in Dadu — where the luckiest of the displaced live in row upon row of hundreds of simple A-frame tents.

In one of the “tent cities” home to around 5,000, residents clamour for treatment in a blustery gazebo where doctors test them for malnutrition and malaria, as others offer vaccinations and female health advice.

Soomro estimates 60 percent of the displaced once stayed in camps like this, but three quarters of those have scattered back to the sodden hinterlands to remake their lives, often out of reach of aid efforts.

Outside the camps the dispersed can be seen everywhere — in tents and on daybeds clustered by highways and near scummy stagnant lakes.

– ‘Unaware’ victims –

The monsoon torrent came after Pakistan was seared by a spring heatwave, with pockets of Sindh sporadically suffering temperatures of 50C (122F). 

Extreme weather events are increasing in severity as a result of climate change, scientists say.

Pakistan — the world’s fifth largest population — is responsible for only 0.8 percent of global greenhouse emissions but it’s one of the most vulnerable to extreme weather caused by global warming.

In Johi, community activist Ali Pervez laments how the worst affected Pakistanis are unable to advocate for climate justice.

“They are totally unaware,” he said.

“There is not any quality education [so] that we can easily make aware, empower our people.”

Pakistan is facing a "second wave" of catastrophe following devasting floods

His head haloed by a whirlwind of mosquitoes, Aamir Hussain stands on the roof of his home in southern Pakistan surveying the fetid floodwaters all around.

Four months after the start of record monsoon rains linked to climate change, the standing water has curdled into a pestilent soup breeding malaria, cholera and dengue.

The UN has warned of a “second wave” of catastrophe, with the risk that deaths from water-borne disease and malnutrition will outstrip the 1,700 drowned and electrocuted in the initial cascade.

As dusk arrives in Hussain’s submerged village in Dadu district of Sindh province, so do the bugs, and the gamble that they will infect his wife and two children.

“The mosquitoes bite a lot and we fall sick,” said the 25-year-old, atop a brickwork compound framing a courtyard awash with putrid, sucking mud.

His brother, who shares this home, has already ventured off the roof to treat his sick children at hospital with borrowed cash.

“Some of our nets are torn now so we are worried,” said Hussain, whose infant son has fallen ill.

Sindh has been worst-hit by the catastrophic flooding which put a third of Pakistan underwater, displaced eight million, destroyed or damaged two million homes, crippled 1,500 hospitals and clinics and caused an estimated $28 billion in damages.

– Cascading disaster –

Climate change minister Sherry Rehman said this week that more than 20 million people are still in need “with futures that are entirely precarious”. Eight million of those require “urgent medical services”, she said.

Zahida Mallah has already been tipped over the edge.

In a bleak camp south of Dadu, outside the city of Hyderabad, the 35 year-old explained she is in mourning for her twin two-month-old sons.

One died on the day AFP visited, the other around two weeks ago at a separate camp. 

They were killed by “colds”, she said, after sleeping out in the open. She was offered a tent only after it was too late.

“We just keep floundering,” she lamented.

Nearby, the city of Johi is corralled by water, accessible via a ramshackle flotilla of canoes powered by greasy petrol engines.

Residents rallied to save the city as the rains lashed down, heaving sandbags into a snaking makeshift levee. But it cannot hold back the disease.

In a desperately rundown emergency clinic, a doctor treats unresponsive seven year-old Kashaf, a suspected malaria patient lying on dirty sheets with a clutch of pharmaceuticals at her feet.

“Perhaps it’s a natural disaster, or perhaps we are being tested by God, but whatever it is we are the victims,” said her father, 20 year-old Dildar Mastoi.

Under a black scarf his daughter’s eyes have rolled back into her head. She no longer recognises her parents — doctors say a fever has affected her brain.

Barely adults themselves, her mother and father fled rising waters twice before settling in a camp where they drink from a well they suspect is contaminated by flood water.

“From early evening until dawn, throughout the whole night, the mosquitoes are overwhelming,” said Kashaf’s mother, 19 year-old Bashiran Mastoi. “When the night approaches we start to worry.”

“Life at the camp is immensely miserable,” she said in a vigil on her child’s sickbed.

Medic Manzoor Shahani said there has been a “surge” in malaria, gastro illnesses, and dengue while “most of the patients are children and pregnant women”.

– ‘The hidden fever’ –

Before the floods southern Pakistan was already devastated by grinding poverty. Now aid only sporadically penetrates the patchwork swampland, while the true number of those in need has yet to even be discovered.

Doctors and officials offer contradicting figures, as they grapple to understand the scale. In Dadu the official death toll is just 23, but everyone privately agrees the real figure must be far higher.

“This is devastation beyond the government’s approach,” said provincial health monitor Faheem Soomro, as young doctors tally the day’s fresh patients at a boardroom table.

Half of malaria tests are coming back positive and most homes have suspected cases. 

Sindh has recorded 208,000 cases of malaria so far this year, a dramatic rise from 2021, when cases were reported.

Left untreated — as it certainly is in the stranded swathes of Sindh — malaria can quickly turn fatal. In a normal year there are 50,000 deaths from malaria in Pakistan.

Soomro describes it as “the hidden fever”. It has vague flu-like symptoms — as the mosquito-borne parasite enters the liver and bloodstream, in severe cases swelling the brain.

The healthcare disaster is most easily monitored in camps — there are 19 in Dadu — where the luckiest of the displaced live in row upon row of hundreds of simple A-frame tents.

In one of the “tent cities” home to around 5,000, residents clamour for treatment in a blustery gazebo where doctors test them for malnutrition and malaria, as others offer vaccinations and female health advice.

Soomro estimates 60 percent of the displaced once stayed in camps like this, but three quarters of those have scattered back to the sodden hinterlands to remake their lives, often out of reach of aid efforts.

Outside the camps the dispersed can be seen everywhere — in tents and on daybeds clustered by highways and near scummy stagnant lakes.

– ‘Unaware’ victims –

The monsoon torrent came after Pakistan was seared by a spring heatwave, with pockets of Sindh sporadically suffering temperatures of 50C (122F). 

Extreme weather events are increasing in severity as a result of climate change, scientists say.

Pakistan — the world’s fifth largest population — is responsible for only 0.8 percent of global greenhouse emissions but it’s one of the most vulnerable to extreme weather caused by global warming.

In Johi, community activist Ali Pervez laments how the worst affected Pakistanis are unable to advocate for climate justice.

“They are totally unaware,” he said.

“There is not any quality education [so] that we can easily make aware, empower our people.”

Bad weather is hampering of search and rescue efforts following Tuesday's avalanche near the summit of Mount Draupadi ka Danda II in the northern state of Uttarakhand, with 19 climbers confirmed dead so far

At least 19 people are confirmed dead after an avalanche struck climbers in the Indian Himalayas, authorities said Friday, with bad weather hampering the fourth day of search and rescue efforts.

A group of climbing trainees and instructors were caught in Tuesday’s massive snowslide near the summit of Mount Draupadi ka Danda II in the northern state of Uttarakhand. 

“Nineteen bodies have been recovered. 10 people are still missing,” state disaster agency spokesperson Ridhim Aggarwal told AFP.  

“Rescue operations have resumed for the day but are subject to weather,” she added. “The weather is bad.”

Police, disaster authorities and the Indian air force have been mobilised to help with search efforts, with 32 people successfully rescued from the mountain despite snow and rainfall.

An advance helicopter landing ground had been prepared near the site of the avalanche at 4,900 metres (16,000 feet) above sea level, the Indo-Tibetan Border Police said Thursday.

Sunil Lalwani, one of the rescued trainee climbers, credited the instructors for saving many lives.

“We were 50-100 metres from the summit with our instructors ahead of us, when suddenly an avalanche hit us and took everyone down,” Lalwani was quoted as saying by the Hindustan Times on Thursday.

“It happened in a matter of seconds and we were dumped in a crevasse. We were somehow able to breathe… It’s because of them that we are alive today.”

Among the bodies recovered earlier in the week was that of climber Savita Kanswal, who had summited Everest this year.

Kanswal was an instructor with the expedition and had been feted by the climbing community for summiting the world’s highest peak and nearby Makalu in just 16 days — a women’s record.

– Fatal accidents common –

Fatal climbing accidents are common in the Himalayas, home to Everest and several of the world’s highest peaks.

In August, the body of a mountaineer was recovered two months after he fell into a crevasse while crossing a glacier in the northern state of Himachal Pradesh. 

Last week, renowned US ski mountaineer Hilaree Nelson’s body was found on the slopes of Nepal’s Manaslu peak after she went missing skiing down the world’s eighth-highest mountain.

The same day, Nepali climber Anup Rai was killed and a dozen others were injured after an avalanche on the 8,163-metre (26,781-foot) mountain. 

Although no substantial research has been done on the impacts of climate change on mountaineering risks in the Himalayas, climbers have reported crevasses widening, running water on previously snowy slopes, and the increasing formation of glacial lakes.