AFP UK

Risk of climate tipping points escalates at 1.5C warming: study

In this file photo taken on July 17, 2022, meltwater flows from the Greenland ice sheet into the Baffin Bay near Pituffik, Greenland

Failing to achieve the Paris agreement goal of limiting global warming to 1.5C could trigger multiple dangerous “tipping points” where changes to climate systems become self-sustaining, according to a major new study published in Science.

Even current levels of warming have already put the world at risk of five major tipping points — including the collapse of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets — but it’s not too late to change course, the authors stress.

“The way I think about it is it’ll change the face of the world — literally if you were looking at it from space,” given long term sea-level rise, rainforest death and more, senior author Tim Lenton of the University of Exeter told AFP.

Lenton authored the first major research on tipping points in 2008. 

These points are defined as a reinforcing feedback in a climate system that is so strong it becomes self-propelling at a certain threshold — meaning even if warming stopped, an ice sheet, ocean or rainforest would keep changing to a new state.

While early assessments said these would be reached in the range of 3-5C of warming, advances in climate observations, modeling and paleoclimate reconstructions of periods of warming in the deep past have found the thresholds much lower.

The new paper is a synthesis of more than 200 studies to produce new estimates for when common tipping points might happen.

It identifies nine global “core” tipping elements contributing substantially to planetary system functioning, and seven regional tipping points, which contribute substantially to human welfare, for a total of 16.

Five of the 16 may be triggered at today’s temperatures: the collapse of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets; widespread abrupt permafrost thaw; collapse of convection in the Labrador Sea; and massive die-off of tropical coral reefs.

Four of these move from “possible” events to “likely” at 1.5C global warming, with five more becoming possible around this level of heating.

– 10 meters of sea rise –

Passing the tipping points for the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets is “making a commitment eventually to an extra 10 meters of global sea level,” said Lenton, though this particular change may take hundreds of years.

Coral reefs are already experiencing die-offs due to warming-induced bleaching, but at current temperatures they are also able to partly recover.

At a particular level of heating, recoveries would no longer be possible, devastating equatorial coral reefs and the 500 million people globally who depend on them.

The Labrador Sea convection is responsible for warming Europe and changes could result in much more severe winters, comparable to the “Little Ice Age” from the early 14th century through the mid-19th century.

Abrupt permafrost thaw — impacting Russia, Scandinavia, and Canada — would further amplify carbon emissions in addition to drastically altering landscapes.

Systems that may come into play around 1.5C also include the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, closely linked to sea levels on the US East Coast.

Starting from 2C, monsoon rains in West Africa and the Sahel could be severely disrupted, and the Amazon rainforest could face widespread “dieback,” turning to savanna. 

First author David Armstrong McKay stressed that even if the planet did hit 1.5C warming, much would depend on how long it stayed there, with the worst impacts coming if the temperature remained that hot for five or six decades.

Further, “these tipping points happening at 1.5 degrees don’t add a vast amount of global warming as a feedback — and that’s quite important because it means we’re not on a runaway train situation at 1.5C.”

That means humanity can still control further warming, and it’s “still worthwhile cutting emissions as fast as we possibly can,” he added.

Lenton said what gave him hope was the idea that human society might have its own “positive” tipping points, where years of incremental change are followed by urgent, widespread action.

“That’s how I can get out of bed in the morning… Can we transform ourselves and the way we live?” he said.

NASA eyes two more dates in September for possible Moon launch

The Artemis 1 space mission hopes to test the SLS as well as the unmanned Orion capsule that sits atop, in preparation for future Moon-bound journeys with humans aboard

NASA is looking at September 23 and September 27 as possible dates for its next attempt at launching its Artemis 1 mission to the Moon, senior official Jim Free told reporters Thursday.

Two previous attempts were scrapped after the giant Space Launch System rocket experienced technical glitches including a fuel leak.

The launch window for the 23rd would open at 6:47am (1047 GMT), while the 27th would open at 11:37am (1537 GMT), added Free, associate administrator for the agency’s exploration systems development directorate.

The dates were chosen to avoid a conflict with the DART mission, in which a probe will strike an asteroid on September 26 to test its ability to divert the object. 

Both missions require use of an international array of antennas called the Deep Space Network.

The launch dates still depend, however, on NASA receiving a special waiver to avoid retesting batteries on an emergency flight system that is used to destroy the rocket if it strays from its designated range to a populated area.

If it does not receive the waiver, the rocket will have to be wheeled back to its assembly building, pushing the timeline back several weeks.

Mike Bolger, exploration ground systems manager, added that teams were working to replace seals to fix the hydrogen leak issue — work that could be completed by the end of Thursday, which would pave the way for a tanking test on September 17.

The Artemis 1 space mission hopes to test the SLS as well as the unmanned Orion capsule that sits atop, in preparation for future Moon-bound journeys with humans aboard.

Once launched, it will take several days for the spacecraft to reach the Moon, flying around 60 miles (100 kilometers) at its closest approach.

The capsule will fire its engines to get to a distant retrograde orbit (DRO) of 40,000 miles beyond the Moon, a record for a spacecraft rated to carry humans.

The trip is expected to last several weeks, and one of its main objectives is to test the capsule’s heat shield, which at 16 feet (5 meters) in diameter is the largest ever built.

Artemis is named after the twin sister of the Greek god Apollo, after whom the first Moon missions were named.

The next mission, Artemis 2, will take astronauts to the Moon without landing on its surface, while the third — set for the mid-2020s — would see the first woman and person of color on lunar soil.

NASA wants to build a lunar space station called Gateway and keep a sustained presence on the Moon to gain insight into how to survive very long space missions, ahead of a mission to Mars in the 2030s.

NASA may attempt Moon launch on September 23: official

The Artemis 1 space mission hopes to test the SLS as well as the unmanned Orion capsule that sits atop, in preparation for future Moon-bound journeys with humans aboard

NASA is looking at September 23 and September 27 as possible dates for its next attempt at launching its Artemis 1 mission to the Moon, senior official Jim Free told reporters Thursday.

Two previous attempts were scrapped after the giant Space Launch System rocket experienced technical glitches including a fuel leak.

“The 23rd is a 6:47am window open for 80 minutes, and the 27th is an 11:37am window with a 70-minute duration,” said Free, associate administrator for the agency’s exploration systems development directorate.

The dates were chosen to avoid a conflict with the DART (Double Asteroid Redirection Test), in which a probe is set to strike an asteroid on September 26.

The launch dates depend, however, on NASA receiving a special waiver to avoid having to retest batteries on an emergency flight system that is used to destroy the rocket if it strays from its designated range to a populated area.

If it does not receive the waiver, the rocket will have to be wheeled back to its assembly building, pushing the timeline back several weeks.

Mike Bolger, exploration ground systems manager, added that teams were working to replace seals to fix the hydrogen leak issue — work that could be completed by the end of Thursday, which would pave the way for a tanking test on September 17.

The Artemis 1 space mission hopes to test the SLS as well as the unmanned Orion capsule that sits atop, in preparation for future Moon-bound journeys with humans aboard.

2022 Europe's hottest summer on record: EU monitor

A 'summer of extremes' saw the water level of Germany's Rhine river drop

The summer of 2022 was the hottest in Europe’s recorded history, with the continent suffering blistering heatwaves and the worst drought in centuries, the European Commission’s satellite monitor said on Thursday.

The five hottest years on record have all come since 2016 as climate change drives ever longer and stronger hot spells and drier soil conditions.

And that created tinderbox forests, increasing the risk of devastating and sometimes deadly wildfires.

The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) said temperatures in Europe had been the “highest on record for both the month of August and the summer (June-August) as a whole”.

Data showed August was the hottest on the continent since records began in 1979 by a “substantial margin”, beating the previous record set in August 2021 by 0.4 degrees Celsius (0.72 Fahrenheit). 

Temperatures from June through to August 2022 were 1.34C hotter than the historical 1991-2020 average, while August itself was 1.72C higher than average.

That puts summer in Europe well within the temperature range at which the Paris Agreement on climate change seeks to limit global heating.

The 2015 accord commits nations to cap average global temperatures at “well below” 2C above pre-industrial levels and to strive for a safer guardrail of 1.5C.

Although satellite data only stretches back a few decades, a Copernicus spokeswoman told AFP the service was confident that 2022 was the hottest summer in Europe going as far back as 1880 — at the early stage of the industrial age.

Europe has been battered by a string of heatwaves this year, with temperature records tumbling in many countries and the mercury topping 40C for the first time in Britain. 

The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) said last month that 2022 was already a record year for wildfires, with nearly 660,000 hectares torched in Europe since January.

– ‘Summer of extremes’ –

CAMS said fires in France had seen the highest levels of carbon pollution from wildfires since records began in 2003.

The EU said last month that the current drought parching the continent was the worst in at least 500 years. 

The European Commission’s Global Drought Observatory latest bulletin said 47 percent of the continent is currently covered by drought warnings — meaning the soil is drying out. 

An additional 17 percent is under drought alert, meaning that vegetation is showing signs of stress, fuelling concerns about the continent’s autumn harvest. 

“An intense series of heatwaves across Europe, paired with unusually dry conditions, have led to a summer of extremes with records in terms of temperature, drought and fire activity in many parts of Europe, affecting society and nature in various ways,” said senior C3S scientist Freja Vamborg. 

“Data shows that we’ve not only had record August temperatures for Europe but also for summer, with the previous summer record only being one year old.”

On a global level, August 2022 was the joint warmest August on record. The average temperature was 0.3C higher than the 1991-2020 average for the month, the monitor said. 

UK's Truss freezes energy bills in first big policy shift

UK Prime Minister Liz Truss announced a two-year freeze on domestic energy bills after concern about spiralling prices

New British Prime Minister Liz Truss on Thursday said domestic fuel bills would be frozen for two years, marking her first week in office with a costly plan to tackle a worsening cost-of-living crisis.

Two days after taking over, Truss unveiled emergency measures that include authorising more oil and gas drilling in the North Sea and lifting a ban on fracking, a controversial method to dig for fossil fuels.

The government said it would also review progress towards its legally enshrined target to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, to ensure no “undue burdens on businesses or consumers”, but stressed it remained committed to the goal.

Households are facing an 80-percent hike in gas and electricity bills next month due to the rise in the cost of wholesale energy made worse by a squeeze on supplies after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Businesses whose bills are not capped have warned they could go to the wall because of even bigger rises, while inflation has reached 40-year highs of 10.1 percent and is predicted to go worsen.

“Extraordinary challenges call for extraordinary measures, ensuring that the United Kingdom is never in this situation again,” Truss said.

The government expects the state-backed energy scheme to cost tens of billions of pounds (dollars), but Truss and new finance minister Kwasi Kwarteng insisted it would have “substantial benefits” to the economy.

It would curb inflation by four to five percentage points, they said in a statement.

Kwarteng said the freeze means worried households and businesses “can now breathe a massive sigh of relief”.

– No windfall tax –

Tackling the cost-of-living crisis, which has led to widespread strike action over pay, threatens to define Truss’s premiership, who succeeded Boris Johnson on Tuesday.

Truss said energy bills for an average British household would be capped at £2,500 ($2,872) a year — £1,000 less than October’s planned level.

Non-domestic energy users, including businesses, charities, and public sector organisations such as schools and hospitals, will see a six-month freeze.

Analysts predict the plan, which will likely be in place at the next general election expected in 2024, could top well over £100 billion, surpassing Britain’s Covid-era furlough jobs scheme.

Truss confirmed that the government will pay energy suppliers the difference in price but did not put an exact figure on how much it could cost the public purse, pending a mini-budget this month by Kwarteng.

Truss, a former Shell employee, has rejected opposition calls to impose windfall taxes on energy giants whose profits have surged on the back of higher wholesale prices. 

In her campaign to succeed Johnson, she had also ruled out direct handouts to consumers, but the new scheme reverses course on that.

Paying for the freeze by increased borrowing has stoked concern on the financial markets about the prospect of worsening public finances already damaged by emergency Covid spending.

On bond markets, the UK’s 10-year borrowing rate topped three percent on Tuesday for the first time since 2014, and the pound has slumped to its lowest dollar level since 1985.

– Fracking –

The end to the fracking moratorium comes despite Truss’s Conservative party having pledged in 2019 to keep it in place, after onshore drilling for shale gas had caused seismic tremors in northern England.

She said that lifting the ban “could get gas flowing in as soon as six months”.

But Kwarteng himself wrote in March that it could take up to a decade to get enough gas from fracking. At the same time, there is concern about the environmental damage of restarting the process.

Like Johnson, Truss committed to diversifying Britain’s energy sources to renewables and nuclear.

But to the anger of environmentalists, the new support package offered nothing about insulating UK buildings better, to reduce Europe’s highest rates of energy leakage.

“Millions of people will breathe a sigh of relief at being pulled back from the brink of fuel poverty, but it’s the fossil fuel giants that will be uncorking the bubbly,” Rosie Rogers of Greenpeace UK said.

And by capping prices without curbing usage, observers said the plan could trigger power blackouts this winter.

“Liz Truss needs to start levelling with the British public,” a senior Conservative backbencher told AFP. 

“We’re ducking the hard choices, and we’re staring at a 1970s energy crisis at this rate.”

US begins clinical trial to test monkeypox vaccine

People line up to speak with healthcare workers with New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene at intake tents where individuals are registered to receive the monkeypox vaccine

US health authorities announced Thursday they would carry out a clinical trial to test different dosing strategies of the Jynneos monkeypox vaccine, amid uncertainty over its effectiveness.

The trial will enroll 200 adults aged 18-50 across the country, and is sponsored by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

The Jynneos vaccine, manufactured by Denmark-based Bavarian Nordic, has been approved by the United States for the prevention of smallpox and monkeypox in people aged 18 and older. 

But while the highest-risk group, men who have sex with men, are encouraged to get the vaccine, there is no clear picture of how well it works in real world settings.

The new trial isn’t designed to produce an efficacy estimate, but rather measure the immune response of different dosing levels and administration methods.

“NIAID’s trial of JYNNEOS will provide important information on the immunogenicity, safety, and tolerability of alternative dosing approaches that would expand the current supply of vaccine,” said NIAID director Anthony Fauci in a statement.

Among the participants, one group will be injected subcutaneously — that is, under the skin. The vaccine is based on attenuated virus that is modified so it can’t replicate, and is given in two doses 28 days apart.

A second group will receive their shots intradermally, meaning between the layers of the skin. This strategy is meant to expand the availability of vaccines because it uses one-fifth of the standard dose.

A third group will also receive their shots intradermally, but at half the dosing level of the second group.

Scientists will test the peak immune responses and compare the side effects across the groups.

President Joe Biden’s administration has bet heavily on the Jynneos vaccine to stem the spread of monkeypox, which has affected more than 20,000 people in the United States since May.

But the question of how well the shot prevents infection versus minimizing disease would require further study to answer.

The current global outbreak is primarily affecting gay and bisexual men.

Historically, the virus has been spread via direct contact with lesions, body fluids and respiratory droplets, and sometimes through indirect contamination via surfaces such as shared bedding. 

But in this outbreak, there is preliminary evidence that sexual transmission may also play a role.

The virus causes painful skin lesions and flu-like symptoms. 

Most people fully recover, but the disease can cause serious complications, including bacterial infections, brain inflammation and death.

Downpours and mudslides hamper China earthquake rescue mission

The People's Liberation Army, paramilitary police and fire rescue services dispatched over 10,000 rescuers to the area

Rain, flash floods and mudslides threatened the search for dozens of people still missing on Thursday, days after a strong earthquake rocked mountainous southwest China, killing at least 86.

The 6.6-magnitude quake hit about 43 kilometres (26 miles) southeast of the city of Kangding in Sichuan province at a depth of 10 kilometres on Monday, according to the US Geological Survey, forcing thousands to be resettled into temporary camps.

State-run newspaper People’s Daily said that 50 people died in Ganzi prefecture near the epicentre, while 36 deaths were reported in neighbouring Ya’an city. 

Around 270 others were injured while the number of missing remained at 35, state broadcaster CCTV reported without giving more details about the conditions of those unaccounted for.

A yellow alert issued by the national weather service — warning of a “risk of geological disaster” — was in force until Thursday night, and moderate rain was forecast to continue to Friday with heavy showers in some areas.

“Since the post-earthquake geological conditions are inherently fragile, and the impact of additional rainfall may lead to landslides and mudslides, the local area needs to beware of secondary disasters,” China’s meteorological administration said.

The People’s Liberation Army, paramilitary police and fire rescue services dispatched more than 10,000 workers who continued search operations and landslide clean-up efforts in the remote countryside.

– Mountain torrents –

Rescuers braved flash floods and landslides caused by aftershocks to relocate villagers from destroyed homes, often having to haul them through mountainous terrain on ropes and stretchers.

CCTV images showed soldiers in military fatigues and orange life jackets using a zip-line to ferry people across river rapids.

“We also waded through the water to get to Xingfu village. The mountain torrents contain rocks… the stones you can’t see in the water pose the greatest threat to us,” a rescue team member named Tan Ke told CCTV.

“We quickly used ropes to build a human ladder… when we first started wading, the water reached our knees and thighs. By the time we got to a safe place, the flash flood had reached waist level.” 

Over 22,000 people have so far been moved into 124 temporary sites across Ganzi and Ya’an, People’s Daily reported. 

The paper said over 21,000 students and staff at a school in Shimian county, where Ya’an is located, were safely evacuated within one minute of the quake. 

Nearly 1,800 schools in the area had reopened by Wednesday, it added. 

Workers raced to fix hundreds of kilometres of power and optical cables, with communications in affected areas “basically restored” as of Thursday, the China Youth Daily reported. 

Local authorities have received over 100 million yuan ($14 million) in disaster relief donations so far, the report said, and the Sichuan government issued an emergency notice requiring local authorities to dish out hardship allowances for affected people.

The quake also rocked buildings in the provincial capital of Chengdu — where millions are confined to their homes under a strict Covid-19 lockdown — and in the nearby megacity of Chongqing, residents told AFP.

Egypt vows to champion climate finance for Africa at COP27

Egyptian Environment Minister Yasmine Fouad in an interview with AFP on the sidelines of an African preparatory meeting for COP 27

When Egypt hosts a global climate summit in November, it will seek to represent Africa which shares little of the blame for global warming but suffers many of its worst impacts, its environment minister says.

Yasmine Fouad told AFP in an interview Wednesday that Egypt will also remind rich countries of the industrialised world of their unfulfilled aid pledges, at the COP27 summit in the Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh.

Part of Egypt’s role as host is to “represent the African continent and its needs clearly and explicitly: We were not the cause of these emissions, but it is us –- our people and our natural resources –- that are affected,” Fouad said.

She was speaking on the sidelines of an international conference in Cairo aimed at highlighting “Africa’s needs and ambitions” in fighting and adjusting to climate change.

African countries are among the most exposed to the impacts of climate change, especially worsening droughts and floods, but responsible for only around three percent of global CO2 emissions, former UN chief Ban Ki-moon said this week.

He was speaking at an Africa-focused summit in the Dutch city of Rotterdam, where African leaders lashed out at industrialised nations for failing to show up.

– Targets in danger –

Egypt’s environment minister said that “at this point, a stance must be taken on the international community level to say that everyone must fulfil their obligations, as set out in the Paris Agreement”. 

In 2015, 196 UN members meeting in Paris set the goal of keeping warming below two degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) over pre-industrial levels, and preferably 1.5 Celsius, but surging carbon emissions have since endangered the targets.

The Paris Agreement also stipulated that developed countries “shall provide financial resources to assist developing country parties” in curbing their emissions and strengthening resilience.

Already in 2015, a promise made at the Copenhagen climate summit in 2009 — to spend $100 billion a year by 2020 on helping vulnerable nations adapt to climate change — was receding in the rear-view mirror.

The 2020 goal came and went with pledges unmet, and regional meetings in preparation for COP27, such as this week’s in Egypt and the Netherlands as well as another last week in Gabon, signal that funding could become a key flashpoint in Sharm el-Sheikh.

– Water, food and energy –

Fouad said environmental concerns had until recent years been regarded “as an obstacle to investment” and a “luxury” that Egypt could not afford.

Drumming up support for environmental efforts was an uphill battle, until the tide turned and the world became increasingly aware that climate change is a matter of “human survival on planet earth”, she said.

The key to securing financing for efforts to combat climate change, she said, was to zero in on “basic human needs on earth: food, water, energy”.

In focusing on “bankable” projects that can turn a profit, Fouad said Egypt hopes to “use new and renewable energy to provide food and water, such as through desalination”.

Such projects could support developing countries with their basic development needs and with addressing climate change, she said, arguing that the two goals are in fact “one and the same”.

UK's Truss freezes energy bills in first big policy shift

UK Prime Minister Liz Truss announced a two-year freeze on domestic energy bills after concern about spiralling prices

New British Prime Minister Liz Truss on Thursday said domestic fuel bills would be frozen for two years, marking her first week in office with a costly plan to tackle a politically perilous cost-of-living crisis.

The government said it would also review progress towards its legally enshrined target to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, to ensure the needs of consumers and businesses are taken into account, while stressing it remained committed to the goal.

Households are facing an 80-percent hike in gas and electricity bills next month due to the rise in the cost of wholesale energy made worse by a squeeze on supplies after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Businesses whose bills are not capped have warned they could go to the wall because of even bigger rises, at the same time as inflation is at 40-year highs of 10.1 percent and predicted to go higher.

The government expects the state-backed scheme to cost tens of billions of pounds (dollars), but Truss and new finance minister Kwasi Kwarteng insisted it would have “substantial benefits” to the economy.

It would curb inflation by four to five percentage points, they said in a statement.

They also announced an end to a ban on fracking — a controversial method to drill for fossil fuels — and more drilling licences for North Sea oil and gas.

Truss said “decades of short-term thinking on energy” and failing to secure supplies had left Britain, which is heavily reliant on gas for its energy needs, vulnerable to price shocks.

“Extraordinary challenges call for extraordinary measures, ensuring that the United Kingdom is never in this situation again,” she said.

Kwarteng said the freeze means worried households and businesses “can now breathe a massive sigh of relief”.

– No windfall tax –

Tackling the cost-of-living crisis, which has led to widespread strike action over pay, threatens to define Truss’s premiership, just two days after she formally took over from Boris Johnson.

Truss said energy bills for an average British household would be capped at £2,500 ($2,872) a year — £1,000 less than October’s planned level.

Non-domestic energy users, including businesses, charities, and public sector organisations such as schools and hospitals, will see a six-month freeze.

Analysts predict the plan, which will likely be in place at the next general election expected in 2024, could top well over £100 billion, surpassing Britain’s Covid-era furlough jobs scheme.

Truss confirmed that the government will pay energy suppliers the difference in price but did not put an exact figure on how much it could cost the public purse, pending a mini-budget this month by Kwarteng.

Truss, a former Shell employee, has rejected opposition calls to impose windfall taxes on energy giants whose profits have surged on the back of higher wholesale prices. 

In her campaign to succeed Johnson, she had also ruled out direct handouts to consumers, but the new scheme reverses course on that.

She said the new price cap was calculated by temporarily removing green levies worth some £150 a year from household bills.

Paying for the freeze by increased borrowing has stoked concern on the financial markets about the prospect of worsening public finances already damaged by emergency Covid spending.

On bond markets, the UK’s 10-year borrowing rate topped three percent on Tuesday for the first time since 2014, and the pound has slumped to its lowest dollar level since 1985.

– Fracking –

The end to the fracking moratorium comes despite Truss’s Conservative party having pledged in 2019 to keep it in place, after onshore drilling for shale gas had caused seismic tremors in northern England.

She said that lifting the ban “could get gas flowing in as soon as six months”.

But experts have cast doubt about the effect on bills, given the time taken to start production and the amount of gas it could yield.

Kwarteng himself wrote in March that it could take up to a decade to get enough gas from fracking. At the same time, there is concern about the environmental damage of restarting the process.

Like Johnson, Truss committed to diversifying Britain’s energy sources to renewables and nuclear.

But she said the net-zero review, scheduled to conclude by the end of the year, would “ensure delivering the target is not placing undue burdens on businesses or consumers”.

The new support package offered nothing about insulating UK buildings better, to reduce high rates of energy leakage, and the government also ruled out any campaign to encourage the public to save energy.

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2022 Europe's hottest summer on record: EU monitor

This is Europe's worst drought in 500 years, says the EU

The summer of 2022 was the hottest in Europe’s recorded history, with the continent suffering blistering heatwaves and the worst drought in centuries, the European Commission’s satellite monitor said on Thursday.

The five hottest years on record have all come since 2016 as climate change drives ever longer and stronger hot spells and drier soil conditions.

And that created tinderbox forests, increasing the risk of devastating and sometimes deadly wildfires.

The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) said temperatures in Europe had been the “highest on record for both the month of August and the summer (June-August) as a whole”.

Data showed August was the hottest on the continent since records began in 1979 by a “substantial margin”, beating the previous record set in August 2021 by 0.4 degrees Celsius (0.72 Fahrenheit). 

Temperatures from June through to August 2022 were 1.34C hotter than the historical 1991-2020 average, while August itself was 1.72C higher than average.

That puts summer in Europe well within the temperature range at which the Paris Agreement on climate change seeks to limit global heating.

The 2015 accord commits nations to cap average global temperatures at “well below” 2C above pre-industrial levels and to strive for a safer guardrail of 1.5C.

Europe has been battered by a string of heatwaves this year, with temperature records tumbling in many countries and the mercury topping 40C for the first time in Britain. 

The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) said last month that 2022 was already a record year for wildfires, with nearly 660,000 hectares torched in Europe since January.

– ‘Summer of extremes’ –

CAMS said fires in France had seen the highest levels of carbon pollution from wildfires since records began in 2003.

The EU said last month that the current drought parching the continent was the worst in at least 500 years. 

The European Commission’s Global Drought Observatory latest bulletin said 47 percent of the continent is currently covered by drought warnings — meaning the soil is drying out. 

An additional 17 percent is under drought alert, meaning that vegetation is showing signs of stress, fuelling concerns about the continent’s autumn harvest. 

“An intense series of heatwaves across Europe, paired with unusually dry conditions, have led to a summer of extremes with records in terms of temperature, drought and fire activity in many parts of Europe, affecting society and nature in various ways,” said senior C3S scientist Freja Vamborg. 

“Data shows that we’ve not only had record August temperatures for Europe but also for summer, with the previous summer record only being one year old.”

On a global level, August 2022 was the joint warmest August on record. The average temperature was 0.3C higher than the 1991-2020 average for the month, the monitor said. 

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