AFP UK

Spain and Brazil reported their first monkeypox-related deaths on Friday, marking what are thought to be the first fatalities linked to the current outbreak outside of Africa.

Spain is one of the world’s worst-hit countries, with 4,298 people there infected with the virus, according to the health ministry’s emergency and alert coordination centre.

“Of the 3,750 (monkeypox) patients with available information, 120 cases were hospitalised (3.2 percent) and one case has died,” the centre said in a report.

An official would not give the specific cause of death for the fatality pending the outcome of an autopsy.

In Brazil a 41-year-old man died of monkeypox, local authorities said on Friday.

The man, who local media said had serious immune system problems, died on Thursday in Belo Horizonte, the capital of the southeastern Minas Gerais state.

He “was receiving hospital treatment for other serious conditions”, the state health ministry said in a statement.

“It is important to underline that he had serious co-morbidities, so as not to spread panic in the population. The death rate is very low” for monkeypox, said Minas Gerais health secretary Fabio Baccheretti, who added that the patient was undergoing cancer treatment.

– A global health emergency –

Brazil’s health ministry has recorded close to 1,000 monkeypox cases, mostly in Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro states, which are also in the country’s southeast.

Early signs of the disease include a high fever, swollen lymph glands and a chickenpox-like rash.

The World Health Organization (WHO) last Saturday declared the monkeypox outbreak a global health emergency.

According to the WHO, more than 18,000 cases have been detected throughout the world outside of Africa since the beginning of May.

The disease has been detected in 78 countries, with 70 percent of cases found in Europe and 25 percent in the Americas, WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said on Wednesday.

As cases surge globally, the WHO on Wednesday called on the group currently most affected by the virus — men who have sex with men — to limit their sexual partners.

Ghebreyesus told reporters that the best way to protect against infection was “to reduce the risk of exposure”.

“For men who have sex with men, this includes, for the moment, reducing your number of sexual partners, reconsidering sex with new partners, and exchanging contact details with any new partners to enable follow-up if needed,” he said.

The disease usually heals by itself after two to three weeks, sometimes taking a month.

A smallpox vaccine from Danish drug maker Bavarian Nordic, marketed under the name Jynneos in the United States and Imvanex in Europe, has also been found to protect against monkeypox.

Search and rescue teams were using boats and helicopters on Friday to look for survivors of flash floods caused by torrential rains which killed at least 16 people in the Appalachia region of eastern Kentucky.

Andy Beshear, governor of the south-central US state, warned that the death toll from the severe flooding was likely to “get a lot higher.”

Beshear said six of the 16 confirmed dead were children including four from the same family.

Kentucky National Guard helicopters, Fish and Wildlife boats and a flotilla of volunteers were scouring flood-hit areas on Friday for residents stranded on rooftops and even clinging on to trees.

Hundreds of people have been rescued by boat since the flooding began Wednesday evening and there have been about 50 aerial rescues using National Guard helicopters, he said.

With many roads washed out “we still can’t get to a lot of people,” the governor said.

“The current is so strong it’s not safe for some of those water rescues that we need to do.”

The impoverished Appalachia region of eastern Kentucky has had flash flooding previously, Beshear noted, “but we’ve never seen something like this.”

“Folks who deal with this for a living, who have been doing it for 20 years, have never seen water this high,” he said.

“Some people’s houses were completely swept away in the middle of the night while they were sleeping.”

Some areas reported receiving more than eight inches (20 centimeters) of rain in a 24-hour period.

The water level of the North Fork of the Kentucky River at Whitesburg rose to a staggering 20 feet within hours, well above its previous record of 14.7 feet.

The weather forecast for the next several days calls for a brief respite over the weekend with heavy rain predicted to resume on Monday.

– Disaster declaration –

Many roads resembled rivers and mangled cars and trucks littered the landscape or floated in muddy brown floodwaters.

Some houses were almost completely submerged in low-lying areas with just their rooftops visible.

Kayla Brown, 29, and Joe Salley Jr., 56, residents of Perry County, told the Lexington Herald-Leader that the fast-rising flood waters trapped them in their mobile home.

“It was like a wave coming at you out of the ocean,” Salley said.

Neighbors came to their rescue after their trailer was knocked off its foundations.

Four young children ranging in age from one and a half to eight years old were swept away from their parents in hard-hit Knott County, the Herald-Leader reported. 

Brittany Trejo, the siblings’ cousin, told the newspaper their parents were rescued after clinging to a tree for eight hours.

“They managed to get to a tree and… held the children a few hours before a big tide came and washed them all away,” Trejo said.

The eastern Kentucky flooding is the latest in a series of extreme weather events that scientists say are an unmistakable sign of climate change.

Nearly 60 people were killed in western Kentucky by a tornado in December 2021.

President Joe Biden has issued a disaster declaration for the Kentucky flooding, allowing federal aid to supplement state and local recovery efforts.

Deanne Criswell, head of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, took an aerial tour of flood-hit areas with the governor on Friday and will report back to the president.

The death toll from severe flooding in Kentucky hit 16 on Friday and is expected to double, the US state’s governor said, after torrential rains caused flash floods that swept away some homes while people slept.

“Tough news is 16 confirmed fatalities now, and folks that’s going to get a lot higher,” Governor Andy Beshear said at a media briefing.

“It is devastating,” Beshear told CNN earlier in the day, saying he expected the toll to “more than double.”

“Some people’s houses were completely swept away in the middle of the night while they were sleeping,” the governor said.

Hundreds of people had been rescued by boat and there had been about 50 aerial rescues using National Guard helicopters, he said.

With many roads washed out “we still can’t get to a lot of people,” the governor said.

“The current is so strong it’s not safe for some of those water rescues that we need to do.”

Eastern Kentucky has had flash flooding previously “but we’ve never seen something like this,” Beshear said.

“Folks who deal with this for a living, who have been doing it for 20 years, have never seen water this high.”

Some areas of the state’s Appalachia region reported receiving more than eight inches (20 centimeters) of rain in a 24-hour period.

The water level of the North Fork of the Kentucky River at Whitesburg rose to a staggering 20 feet within hours, well above its previous record of 14.7 feet.

– Disaster declaration –

Many roads resembled rivers, mangled cars littered the landscape and muddy brown floodwaters lapped against the rooftops of low-lying houses.

Kayla Brown, 29, and Joe Salley Jr., 56, residents of Perry County, told the Lexington Herald-Leader that the fast-rising flood waters trapped them in their mobile home.

“It was like a wave coming at you out of the ocean,” Salley said.

Neighbors came to their rescue after their trailer was knocked off its foundations.

Four young children ranging in age from one and a half to eight years old were swept away from their parents in hard-hit Knott County, the Herald-Leader reported. 

Brittany Trejo, the siblings’ cousin, told the newspaper the bodies of two of the children had been found, but the other two were still missing.

Their parents were rescued after clinging to a tree for eight hours, Trejo told the Herald-Leader.

“They managed to get to a tree and… held the children a few hours before a big tide came and washed them all away,” Trejo said.

The eastern Kentucky flooding is the latest in a series of extreme weather events that scientists say are an unmistakable sign of climate change.

Nearly 60 people were killed in western Kentucky by a tornado in December 2021.

The National Weather Service warned that more heavy rain was expected on Friday.

President Joe Biden issued a disaster declaration for Kentucky, allowing federal aid to supplement state and local recovery efforts.

Deanne Criswell, head of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, arrived in Kentucky on Friday to tour flood-hit areas and report back to the president.

At least 15 people have died in Kentucky in flash flooding caused by torrential rains that swept away homes and left some residents stranded on rooftoops, the governor of the US state said Friday.

“It is devastating,” Governor Andy Beshear told CNN. “Our number of Kentuckians we’ve lost is now at 15.

“I expect it to more than double,” Beshear said. “And it’s going to include some children.”

“Some people’s houses were completely swept away in the middle of the night while they were sleeping,” the governor added.

He said hundreds of people had been rescued by boat and there had been about 50 aerial rescues using National Guard helicopters.

With many roads washed out “we still can’t get to a lot of people,” he said.

“The current is so strong it’s not safe for some of those water rescues that we need to do.”

Eastern Kentucky has had flash flooding previously “but we’ve never seen something like this,” Beshear said.

“Folks who deal with this for a living, who have been doing it for 20 years, have never seen water this high.”

Some areas of the state’s Appalachia region reported receiving more than eight inches (20 centimeters) of rain in a 24-hour period.

The water level of the North Fork of the Kentucky River at Whitesburg rose to a staggering 20 feet within hours, well above its previous record of 14.7 feet.

– Disaster declaration –

Many roads resembled rivers, mangled cars littered the landscape and muddy brown floodwaters lapped against the rooftops of low-lying houses.

Kayla Brown, 29, and Joe Salley Jr., 56, residents of Perry County, told the Lexington Herald-Leader that the fast-rising flood waters trapped them in their mobile home.

“It was like a wave coming at you out of the ocean,” Salley said.

Neighbors came to their rescue after their trailer was knocked off its foundations.

The eastern Kentucky flooding is the latest in a series of extreme weather events that scientists say are an unmistakable sign of climate change.

Nearly 60 people were killed in western Kentucky by a tornado in December 2021.

The National Weather Service warned that more heavy rain was expected.

President Joe Biden issued a disaster declaration for Kentucky, allowing federal aid to supplement state and local recovery efforts.

Deanne Criswell, head of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, is travelling to Kentucky on Friday and will report back to the president.

Flash flooding caused by torrential rains has killed at least 15 people in eastern Kentucky and the death toll is expected to double, the US state’s governor said Friday.

“It is devastating. Our number of Kentuckians we’ve lost is now at 15, expected to more than double. And it’s going to include some children,” Governor Andy Beshear told CNN.

He said hundreds of people had been rescued by boat and there had been about 50 aerial rescues using helicopters deployed by the National Guard.

“Eastern Kentucky floods a lot but we’ve never seen something like this,” Beshear said.

“Folks who deal with this for a living who have been doing it for 20 years have never seen water this high.”

Some areas reported receiving more than eight inches (20 centimeters) of rain in a 24-hour period.

The water level of the North Fork of the Kentucky River at Whitesburg rose to a staggering 20 feet, well above its previous record of 14.7 feet.

So-called “ultra-fast fashion” has won legions of young fans who are able to snap up relatively cheap clothes online, but campaigners say the trend masks darker environmental problems. 

Britain’s Boohoo, China’s SHEIN and Hong Kong’s Emmiol are the main players in a sector that produces items and collections at breakneck speed and rock-bottom prices.

Their internet-based business model provides fierce competition to better-known “fast fashion” chains with physical stores, like Sweden’s H&M and Spain’s Zara.

According to Bloomberg, SHEIN generated $16 billion in global sales last year.

However, environmental pressure groups slam the “throwaway clothing” phenomenon as grossly wasteful — it takes 2,700 litres of water to make one T-shirt that is swiftly binned.

“Many of these cheap clothes end up… on huge dump sites, burnt on open fires, along riverbeds and washed out into the sea, with severe consequences for people and the planet,” Greenpeace says. 

Nevertheless, with inflation across the globe soaring to the highest level in decades, there is huge demand for low-price garments. 

And after the coronavirus pandemic, high-street shops with big overhead costs are struggling to compete.

– ‘Quantity not quality’ –

With T-shirts costing just the equivalent of $4.80 and bikinis and dresses selling for just under $10, for high-school students, such as 18-year-old Lola from the French city of Nancy, ultra-fast fashion shopping appears to offer unbeatable bargains. 

Turning a blind eye to the environmental cost, she says brands such as SHEIN allow her to follow the latest trends “without spending an astronomical amount”. 

Lola says she normally places two or three orders per month on SHEIN with an average combined value of 70 euros ($71) for about 10 items.

Ultra-fast fashion’s young target demographic are looking for “quantity rather than quality,” says economics professor Valerie Guillard at Paris-Dauphine University.

Much of the success of SHEIN, which was founded in late 2008, is attributable to its massive presence on social media networks, such as TikTok, Instagram and YouTube.

In so-called “haul” videos, customers unwrap SHEIN packages, try on clothes and review them online.

On TikTok alone, there are 34.4 billion mentions of the hashtag #SHEIN and six billion for #SHEINhaul.

The brands also extend their reach via low-cost partnerships with so-called social-media influencers to build trust and increase sales.

Irish influencer Marleen Gallagher, 45, who works with SHEIN and other firms, praised them for offering broader-size ranges. 

“They are unrivalled when it comes to choices for plus-size women,” she told AFP.

– Carbon footprint –

But not only does the industry have a reputation for devouring valuable resources and damaging the environment, ultra-fast fashion companies have also been plagued by scandals over allegedly poor working conditions in their factories.

Swiss-based NGO Public Eye discovered in November 2022 that employees in some SHEIN factories worked up to 75 hours per week, in contravention of China’s labour laws.

Britain’s Boohoo similarly faced criticism following media reports that its suppliers were underpaying workers in Pakistan.

The industry’s carbon footprint is equally disastrous.

The French Agency for Ecological Transition estimates that fast fashion accounts for two percent of global greenhouse emissions per year — as much as air transport and maritime traffic combined.

It comes as no surprise, then, that climate campaigner Greta Thunberg is damning.

“The fashion industry is a huge contributor to the climate and ecological emergency, not to mention its impact on the countless workers and communities who are being exploited around the world in order for some to enjoy fast fashion that many treat as disposables,” Thunberg wrote last year. 

The authorities are also beginning to scrutinise the brands’ practices. 

The British Competition and Markets Authority has opened a “greenwashing” probe against Boohoo, Asos and George at Asda over concerns that some of the environmental claims about their products are misleading. 

Charlotte, 14, says she has decided to stop ordering from SHEIN and Emmiol. 

“I was happy to have new clothes, but then I felt guilty,” she said.

Now “I look for them on Vinted”, an online marketplace for buying and selling new and secondhand items, the teenager said. 

So-called “ultra-fast fashion” has won legions of young trend-setting fans who snap up relatively cheap clothes online amid surging inflation, but the booming genre masks darker environmental problems.

Britain’s Boohoo, China’s SHEIN and Hong Kong’s Emmiol operate the same internet-based business model — produce items and collections at breakneck speed and rock-bottom prices.

They are giving intense competition to more well-known “fast fashion” chains with physical stores, like Sweden’s H&M and Spain’s Zara.

Young people under the age of 25 — widely known as Generation Z — love placing multiple orders for ultra-fast fashion, which then arrive in the post.

– ‘Consequences for planet’ –

Greenpeace has, however, slammed the “throwaway clothing” phenomenon as grossly wasteful, arguing it takes 2,700 litres of water to make one T-shirt that is swiftly binned.

“Many of these cheap clothes end up… on huge dump sites, burnt on open fires, along riverbeds and washed out into the sea, with severe consequences for people and the planet,” the green pressure group says.

Photographs of mountains of shoddy clothing, returned to the vendor or dumped soon after purchase, have gone viral, highlighting the vast amount of waste.

Demand for low-price garments has nevertheless soared due to decades-high inflation, while many Covid-hit high-street shops with big overhead costs struggle to compete.

And it is wildly popular: SHEIN generated $16 billion in global sales last year, Bloomberg says.

– Mirage of cheapness –

Customers purchase T-shirts for £4.0 ($4.80), while bikinis and dresses sell for as little as £8.0 apiece.

For French high-school student Lola, 18, who lives in the city of Nancy, SHEIN shopping has become a cheap hobby.

The brand simply allows her to follow the latest trends “without spending an astronomical amount”, she told AFP, oblivious to the environmental cost.

Lola normally places two to three orders per month on SHEIN with an average combined value of 70 euros ($71) for about 10 items.

Ultra-fast fashion’s young target demographic — like Lola — simply have less cash to spend.

Those consumers therefore “seek quantity rather than quality” of clothing, according to economics professor Valerie Guillard at Paris-Dauphine University.

SHEIN, which was founded in late 2008, now sells across the world helped by its massive presence on social media networks.

– ‘Haul’ videos –

Customers post so-called “haul” videos online — where they unwrap SHEIN packages, try on clothes and review them.

That has boosted its popularity on TikTok, which is favoured by teenagers and young adults, while there are also such videos on Instagram and YouTube.

On TikTok alone, there are 34.4 billion mentions of the hashtag #SHEIN and six billion for #SHEINhaul.

Brands extends their reach via low-cost partnerships with a large number of people on social media, to build trust and increase sales.

Irish social-media influencer Marleen Gallagher, 45, who works with SHEIN and other firms, praised them for offering broader size ranges than regular stores.

“They are unrivalled when it come to choices for plus-size women,” she told AFP.

– Climate emergency –

Yet the industry has a reputation for devouring valuable resources and damaging the environment.

Ultra-fast fashion companies have also been plagued by scandals over allegedly poor working conditions in their factories.

Swiss-based NGO Public Eye discovered in November 2022 that employees in some SHEIN factories worked up to 75 hours per week, in contravention of Chinese labour laws.

Britain’s Boohoo also faced criticism following media reports that its suppliers were underpaying workers in Pakistan.

Added to the picture, the French Agency for Ecological Transition estimates that fast fashion accounts for a staggering two percent of global greenhouse emissions per year.

That is as much as air transport and maritime traffic combined.

The genre has meanwhile attracted the anger of climate campaigner Greta Thunberg.

“The fashion industry is a huge contributor to the climate and ecological emergency, not to mention its impact on the countless workers and communities who are being exploited around the world in order for some to enjoy fast fashion that many treat as disposables,” Thunberg wrote last year, urging change.

A deadly virus has swept through Zurich’s zoo, killing three Asian elephants in a month and leaving experts stumped as to how to stop its spread.

The zoo overlooking Switzerland’s largest city now has only five of the majestic creatures roaming its 11,000-square-metre (118,400-square-foot) elephant enclosure.

Two-year-old bull Umesh was the first to fall victim to the Elephant endotheliotropic herpesvirus (EEHV) at the end of June, followed just days later by his eight-year-old sister Omysha. 

Last Saturday, Ruwani, a five-year-old female from a second matriarchal herd also died.    

They succumbed at lightning speed to the herpesvirus, which leaves young Asian elephants with internal bleeding and organ failure.

In captivity, this virus is “the main cause of death for elephants between two and eight years”, zoo curator Pascal Marty told AFP.

The virus has also been known to kill elephants in the wild, he said, but “it’s a bit harder to detect”.

– Last goodbye –

The herpesvirus lies latent in nearly all elephants, both in the wild and in captivity, but can in some cases suddenly become deadly, killing its victims in a matter of days.

“We still don’t know why it happens and when it happens,” Marty said. 

The zoo’s five remaining Asian elephants — all adults — were permitted to spend a few hours gathered around the remains of their young family members and companions. 

Marty said it was important to give the animals “enough time (to) say farewell”.

“It’s very hard to say whether or not they are sad, because sadness is something human,” he said.

But he stressed that since elephants are highly social animals, it is vital that they have a chance to realise when a member of their herd is no longer alive.

“It is very important for them to have closure to understand this individual is not part of our group anymore.” 

Less than a week after the latest death, the giant mammals appear to be going nonchalantly about their daily activities, from swimming in a large pond to searching for food.

They slip their trunks into holes, where a computer programme randomly distributes carrots and dried grass, aiming to make the animals walk and search for food as in the wild.

– Stress –

“It is kind of sad, especially because here in Zurich I think the elephants do have enough space,” said frequent visitor Mauro Muller, 29.

Zurich zoo opened its new elephant enclosure in 2014, providing its herds six times more space than they had previously.

But eight years on, the zoo acknowledged it was going through “difficult days”.

“It is particularly frustrating that we are powerless against this virus, despite the best veterinary care through the university animal hospital in Zurich,” zoo director Severin Dressen said in a statement.

There is no vaccine, and while antivirals exist, they are not very efficient and even when elephants are treated quickly, only about a third of them survive.

“The epidemiology of the disease is still not clear,” said Bhaskar Choudhury, a veterinarian and member of the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Asian Elephant Specialist Group.

“The virus is shed intermittently by adults but with increasing frequency during stress periods, which is thought to be the source of infection for young calves,” he told AFP.

“IUCN is highly concerned with the mortality worldwide in captivity and more so in the wild.”

– ‘Ambassadors’ –

Asian elephants, which can live up to around 60 years old, are listed by the IUCN as an endangered species, with only about 50,000 left in the wild.

Deforestation, urban sprawl and agricultural development have robbed them of their natural habitat, while poaching and the illegal ivory trade also threaten many herds.

“The populations are declining almost everywhere,” Marty said, adding that for conservation reasons, “it is also really important to have good and healthy populations of Asian elephants in Europe”.

Zurich zoo, he said, has one of the world’s most modern elephant enclosures, and is intent on continuing with its mission to breed them.

He described the elephants in the park as “partners” in educating people about the problems wild elephants face.

“Elephants here at the zoo have an important role as ambassadors for their own species,” he said.

A deadly virus has swept through Zurich’s zoo, killing three Asian elephants in a month and leaving experts stumped as to how to stop its spread.

The zoo overlooking Switzerland’s largest city now has only five of the majestic creatures roaming its 11,000-square-metre (118,400-square-foot) elephant enclosure.

Two-year-old bull Umesh was the first to fall victim to the Elephant endotheliotropic herpesvirus (EEHV) at the end of June, followed just days later by his eight-year-old sister Omysha. 

Last Saturday, Ruwani, a five-year-old female from a second matriarchal herd also died.    

They succumbed at lightning speed to the herpesvirus, which leaves young Asian elephants with internal bleeding and organ failure.

In captivity, this virus is “the main cause of death for elephants between two and eight years”, zoo curator Pascal Marty told AFP.

The virus has also been known to kill elephants in the wild, he said, but “it’s a bit harder to detect”.

– Last goodbye –

The herpesvirus lies latent in nearly all elephants, both in the wild and in captivity, but can in some cases suddenly become deadly, killing its victims in a matter of days.

“We still don’t know why it happens and when it happens,” Marty said. 

The zoo’s five remaining Asian elephants — all adults — were permitted to spend a few hours gathered around the remains of their young family members and companions. 

Marty said it was important to give the animals “enough time (to) say farewell”.

“It’s very hard to say whether or not they are sad, because sadness is something human,” he said.

But he stressed that since elephants are highly social animals, it is vital that they have a chance to realise when a member of their herd is no longer alive.

“It is very important for them to have closure to understand this individual is not part of our group anymore.” 

Less than a week after the latest death, the giant mammals appear to be going nonchalantly about their daily activities, from swimming in a large pond to searching for food.

They slip their trunks into holes, where a computer programme randomly distributes carrots and dried grass, aiming to make the animals walk and search for food as in the wild.

– Stress –

“It is kind of sad, especially because here in Zurich I think the elephants do have enough space,” said frequent visitor Mauro Muller, 29.

Zurich zoo opened its new elephant enclosure in 2014, providing its herds six times more space than they had previously.

But eight years on, the zoo acknowledged it was going through “difficult days”.

“It is particularly frustrating that we are powerless against this virus, despite the best veterinary care through the university animal hospital in Zurich,” zoo director Severin Dressen said in a statement.

There is no vaccine, and while antivirals exist, they are not very efficient and even when elephants are treated quickly, only about a third of them survive.

“The epidemiology of the disease is still not clear,” said Bhaskar Choudhury, a veterinarian and member of the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Asian Elephant Specialist Group.

“The virus is shed intermittently by adults but with increasing frequency during stress periods, which is thought to be the source of infection for young calves,” he told AFP.

“IUCN is highly concerned with the mortality worldwide in captivity and more so in the wild.”

– ‘Ambassadors’ –

Asian elephants, which can live up to around 60 years old, are listed by the IUCN as an endangered species, with only about 50,000 left in the wild.

Deforestation, urban sprawl and agricultural development have robbed them of their natural habitat, while poaching and the illegal ivory trade also threaten many herds.

“The populations are declining almost everywhere,” Marty said, adding that for conservation reasons, “it is also really important to have good and healthy populations of Asian elephants in Europe”.

Zurich zoo, he said, has one of the world’s most modern elephant enclosures, and is intent on continuing with its mission to breed them.

He described the elephants in the park as “partners” in educating people about the problems wild elephants face.

“Elephants here at the zoo have an important role as ambassadors for their own species,” he said.

Russia’s announcement this week that it will leave the International Space Station “after 2024” raises critical questions about the outpost’s future viability. 

Here’s what you should know about Moscow’s decision, and the potential effect on one of the last remaining examples of US-Russia cooperation.

– Why does Russia want to leave? – 

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has pitted it against the West, eviscerating its relationship with the United States and leading to broad sanctions, including against its space industry.

Back in March, Dmitry Rogozin, then-chief of Russian space agency Roscosmos, warned that without his nation’s cooperation, the ISS could plummet to Earth on US or European territory.

But Rogozin’s penchant for bombast, combined with a lack of a firm plan, left things uncertain — and just two weeks ago, Russia and the United States vowed to continue flying each other’s cosmonauts and astronauts to the station.

Scott Pace, director of the Space Policy Institute at George Washington University, said that if anything, the new announcement by Rogozin’s successor Yury Borisov was “mildly helpful.”

“The fact they said, ‘We’re going to be committed through 2024’ is good,” Pace, a former high-ranking government official, told AFP. 

It means Moscow isn’t planning to pull out sooner, even though what precisely is meant by “after 2024” isn’t yet clear.

The year 2024 is what the partners had previously agreed to, though NASA’s goal is to keep the ISS in orbit until at least 2030 and then transition to smaller commercial stations.

The next step in the process is to notify a body called the multilateral control board, comprising all the ISS partners — the United States, Russia, Europe, Japan and Canada — at which point details of the transition will be defined.

If Russia does follow through, it could end up grounding its once proud space program for some time. The country doesn’t have a commercial space economy, and Russian analysts don’t see the country building a new station anytime soon.

– Can the station fly without Russia? –

Probably — but it would be challenging.

The ISS was launched in 1998 at a time of hope for US-Russia cooperation following their Space Race competition during the Cold War.

Since the Space Shuttle was retired, the ISS has relied on Russian propulsion systems for periodic boosts to maintain its orbit, some 250 miles (400 kilometers) above sea level. The US segment is responsible for electricity and life support systems.

The United States has recently taken strides in gaining an independent propulsion system through Northrop Grumman’s Cygnus spacecraft, which successfully carried out a re-boost test in late June.

But altitude is only a part of the equation: the other is “attitude,” or orientation. 

Cygnus “can push, but it can’t keep the station pointed in the right direction while it pushes,” explained astronomer and space watcher Jonathan McDowell.

The ISS itself can make small attitude adjustments, but if the Russians pulled out, the United States would need a more permanent solution — perhaps involving the SpaceX Dragon, Northrop Grumman’s Cygnus or Orion, said Pace.

Russia has two propulsion systems: progress spaceships that dock to the station and the Zvezda service module. All of the control systems are handled out of Moscow.

It would be helpful if Russia left their segment in place rather than took it with them when they go — one of the station’s two bathrooms are on the Russian side — observed Pace, but that’s another unknown. 

“If it’s still there, and we wanted to use it, would there be some sort of rental arrangement? I don’t know.” 

– What do experts predict? –

NASA itself has adopted a bullish position.

“We’re running and gunning, we’re gonna go to 2030 full up,” Joel Montalbano, NASA ISS program manager, said Tuesday on the morning of the Russian announcement. 

“Anybody thinks that there’s a different plan, you’re wrong.”

But while Russia’s withdrawal could present a new opportunity for the private sector, McDowell isn’t so certain.

For him, “how hard they really want to work to get an extra few years out of ISS” is an open question.

“It’s maybe not the right move for the US to go to extreme lengths to save (the) Station,” he said, especially since NASA has bigger goals of building a lunar space station called Gateway, establishing a Moon presence and going to Mars.

“Maybe they should take the Russian pull-out as an excuse, and go, ‘Okay, bye.’ And now let’s put our money in Gateway.”