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(Bloomberg) – The U.S. said Russia has massed as many as 190,000 personnel – including troops, National Guard units and Russian-backed separatists – in and around Ukraine in what it called the most significant military mobilization since World War II.  

Russia told the U.S. this week that it has no plans to attack, and officials in Moscow have repeatedly dismissed U.S. warnings about a possible invasion as “hysteria” and propaganda. 

The buildup has sparked a flurry of diplomatic activity between allies and adversaries. U.S. President Joe Biden will speak with transatlantic leaders on Friday about the Kremlin’s troop movements. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu will also talk to his U.S. counterpart Lloyd Austin by phone, and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will meet U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Europe next week.

Key Developments

• U.S. Ramps Up Ukraine Warnings as Russia Denies Invasion Plans
• Why Minsk Accords Are Murky Path for Ukraine Peace: QuickTake
• Ukraine, Russia-Backed Separatists Allege Cease-Fire Violations
• Where Military Forces Are Assembling Around Russia and Ukraine

All times CET:

Ukraine Separatists to Send Women, Children to Russia (2:30 p.m.)

Children, women and elderly people began leaving for Russia due to an escalation in fighting along the line of contact with Ukrainian forces, the leader of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic said.

The separatists have an agreement with the government of the neighboring Russian region of Rostov to host people, Denis Pushilin said in remarks posted on separatists’ Donetsk News Agency website.

The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe has observed a spike in violence in Donbas this week, recording about three times the average number of cease-fire violations on Wednesday.

The ruble erased gains of almost 1% against the dollar, trading little changed as of 4:26 p.m. in Moscow. Stocks extended losses, with the benchmark MOEX index retreating 2.8% as bluechips Gazprom and Sberbank slid.

Harris in Munich Vows to Stay Close to Allies (1:55 p.m.)

U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris called the situation in Ukraine “a dynamic moment in time” and vowed to stay close to allies, checking in hourly, if necessary.

In her first public remarks since arriving in Germany for the Munich Security Conference, Harris stressed support for NATO in a meeting with Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.

Harris said the U.S. backs diplomacy with Russia, “but we are also committed to taking corrective actions to ensure there will be severe consequences” if President Vladimir Putin invades Ukraine. Moscow denies any intention to invade.

U.S. Sees Biggest Military Mobilization in Europe Since WWII (12:50 p.m.)

The U.S. estimates Russia has massed between 169,000 and 190,000 personnel in and around Ukraine, including separatists in breakaway regions in Donbas, the head of its mission to the OSCE said at a meeting in Vienna.   

The number of personnel has risen from 100,000 on Jan. 30, according to Ambassador Michael Carpenter. The count includes forces in Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014.

Russia did not attend the OCSE meeting and maintains that it is free to deploy troops on its territory as it sees fit. Moscow denies arming the separatist regions. 

Scholz to Host G-7 Talks Next Week (11:35 a.m.)

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will host virtual talks with his Group of Seven counterparts next Thursday and discuss issues including the situation on Ukraine’s eastern border, his spokesman said.

Germany currently holds the group’s presidency and next week’s talks are also part of preparations for June’s summit in Bavaria, spokesman Wolfgang Buechner said at a regular news briefing. Scholz will give a press conference after the meeting ends.

Putin to Monitor Missile Launches on Saturday (10:55 a.m.)

Putin will observe drills of Russia’s strategic nuclear forces on Saturday that include launches of ballistic and cruise missiles, the Russian Defense Ministry said. 

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov called the drills routine and said they don’t fuel tensions. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, who is in Moscow for talks, may accompany Putin to the Defense Ministry command center to watch the launches, Peskov said. 

Russia is also planning live-fire exercises Saturday as part of the biggest joint maneuvers with Belarus in years. The drills are being closely watched by Ukraine and the West amid fears of an invasion.

Lithuanian Leader Says Peaceful Resolution Possible (10:45 a.m.)

“I still believe in the peaceful solution of this conflict,” Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda said in an interview with Bloomberg TV, referring to the tensions between Russia and Ukraine. “There are a lot of rumors, we should probably stay calm.”

The Russian buildup of forces near Ukraine is likely part of a plan by Putin to “get a better, stronger negotiating position,” he said. 

The U.S. has ramped up warnings of a possible Russian attack, although Ukraine’s Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said Friday that the risk of a full-scale invasion is low. 

Russian, U.S. Defense Chiefs to Talk Friday (8:45 a.m.)
Shoigu will speak Friday with U.S. Defense Secretary Austin at the request of the U.S. side, the Russian Defense Ministry said.

Russia says that some soldiers that took part in drills near Ukraine have already returned to their bases. The Biden administration and its allies have disputed Moscow’s claims of a troop pullback.

Germany Regrets Russia to Skip Munich Conference (7 a.m.)
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said it’s regrettable that no Russian representatives will attend the Munich Security Conference that starts Friday.

“We are ready for a serious dialogue about security for all,” Baerbock said. “But we also need serious de-escalation steps from Russia.”

The Munich conference is an annual event to discuss transatlantic security issues. The U.S. delegation includes Harris and Blinken, who will take part in a Q&A with Baerbock on Friday afternoon. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is scheduled to speak on Saturday.

The picture in Ukraine continues to be very grim.

This weekend I will travel to the @MunSecConf for discussions with partners.

The West is united: De-escalation and dialogue is the only way forward. pic.twitter.com/2Am1R8pqMD

— Boris Johnson (@BorisJohnson) February 17, 2022
Lavrov Agrees to Meet Blinken, U.S. Says (3:15 a.m.)
Lavrov has agreed to meet Blinken for talks in Europe next week, Ned Price, a State Department spokesman, said on Thursday night.

The Russian response came hours after Blinken, at the United Nations, appealed for a diplomatic solution to the Ukraine crisis.

“The Russians have responded with proposed dates for late next week, which we are accepting, provided there is no further Russian invasion of Ukraine,” Price said in a statement. “If they do invade in the coming days, it will make clear they were never serious about diplomacy.”

– With assistance from Tugce Ozsoy, Vladimir Kuznetsov, Ilya Arkhipov, Aaron Eglitis, Iain Rogers, Alberto Nardelli, Gregory L. White, Jennifer Jacobs and Henry Meyer.

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